just now
- Bitcoin rebounds off $98K weekly FVG as institutional inflows, political clarity, and Fed rate cut bets drive bullish sentiment.
- Technically, BTC trades above equilibrium near $109K with key support at $106K–$108K and resistance at $112k.
- A bullish breakout eyes new highs, while failure to hold FVGs risks downside to $103K–$104K.
Fundamental Narratives Driving Bitcoin This Week
Bitcoin has once again ignited market hype, recovering sharply after bouncing off from $98,000 level taking out June 5 low and revisiting the volume imbalance, weekly Fair Value Gap resting between $97,900-$100,700 BTC is now trading near the $109,000 level, on above equilibrium as bullish tailwinds gather momentum from multiple directions:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows: Over $45 billion in inflows this month alone are fueling confidence, led by U.S.-based institutional investors seeking exposure via regulated vehicles.
- Corporate Accumulation: “Strategy” (formerly MicroStrategy) added another $530 million in BTC, boosting their holdings to over 597,000 BTC—a sign of long-term conviction.
- Political & Regulatory Clarity: U.S. regulatory clarity with bipartisan bills (like the GENIUS Act) and pro-crypto positioning from political figures (e.g., Trump) are helping reduce uncertainty.
- Interest Rate Bets: Markets are pricing in a 72.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, creating a more risk-on environment that supports crypto inflows.
- Weaker USD & Safe-Haven Demand: As the dollar consolidates and geopolitical risks ease (e.g., temporary ceasefires in the Middle East), Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized hedge continues to shine.
Technical Outlook – BTCUSDT Daily & 4H Structure
BTC is now trading on a premium level above equilibrium (Above the 50% of the Previous Range) near $109,000 with no signs of reversal or weakness as bullish macros mention support a bullish Bitcoin.
On the 4-Hour, after dropping at $105,000 level, there’s no follow-through for downside continuation, indicating strength on Bitcoin as risk-on sentiment continue to push price for new highs.
Bullish Scenario: Rally Toward New Highs
Bitcoin remains poised to continue its bullish momentum if price holds above key support (Fair Value Gap + Premium Fibonacci Levels) and invalidates near-term resistance. Bullish traction will still be intact if:
- 1st Layer Fair Value Gap between $107,860.23 - $108,650.97 gets respected with 0.23+0.38 Fibonacci Levels acts as supports
- 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap between $106,216.08 - $107,080.00 (Last Line of Defense) remains intact
A caution on 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - We would like price to just bounce off at that level and not consolidate for renewed strength.
Targets:
- $111,980 – Immediate resistance
- $112,000 – All-Time High Level
Bearish Scenario: Another Rejection From Resistance
Should Bitcoin fail to sustain above key levels or if macro risk sentiment turns, a downside retracement could unfold.
Another layer of invalidation and could pose downside risk is if:
- The Fair Value Gap Levels fail to hold:
- 1st Layer - $107,860.23 - $108,650.97
- 2nd Layer - $106,216.08 - $107,080.00
- Ultimately, a breakdown below $105,000 level could pull the coin for a deeper pullback.
Targets:
- Daily Fair Value Gap - $103,400 - $104,600
Check Out My Contents:
Strategies That You Can Use
How To Trade & Scalp Indices at the Open Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
How to Trade Breakouts Effectively in Day Trading with Smart Money Concepts
Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Day Trading Gold (XAU/USD) with Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
The Power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis in Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Forex Trading Strategy for Beginners
Mastering Candlestick Pattern Analysis with the SMC Strategy for Day Trading
Mastering Risk Management: Stop Loss, Take Profit, and Position Sizing
RSI Divergence Trading Strategy for Gold: How to Identify and Trade Trend Reversals
Stochastics Trading Secrets: How to Time Entries in Trending Markets using Stochastics
Gold Trading Stochastics Strategy: How to Trade Gold with 2R–3R Targets
RSI Hidden Divergence Explained: How to Spot Trend Continuations Like a Pro
How To Trade News
Why Smart Money Concepts Work in News-Driven Markets - CPI, NFP, and More
How to Trade NFP Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)-A Proven Strategy for Forex Traders
How to Trade CPI Like Smart Money - A Step-by-Step Guide Using SMC
Learn How to Trade US Indices
How to Start Trading Indices and Get into the Stock Market with Low Capital (2025 Guide)
Best Indices to Trade for Day Traders | NASDAQ, S&P 500, DAX + Best Times to Trade Them
How To Trade & Scalp Indices at the Open Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
NAS100 - How to Trade the Nasdaq Like a Pro (Smart Money Edition)
How to Trade CPI Like Smart Money - A Step-by-Step Guide Using SMC
Why Smart Money Concepts Work in News-Driven Markets - CPI, NFP, and More
How to Start Trading Gold
How to Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) Using Smart Money Concepts: A Simple Guide for Traders
Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Day Trading Gold (XAU/USD) with Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
The Ultimate Guide to Backtesting and Trading Gold (XAU/USD) Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Why Gold Remains the Ultimate Security in a Shifting World
How to Trade Japanese Candlesticks
How to Trade Candlestick Patterns with High Probability: A Complete Guide for Beginners
The Top Japanese Candlestick Guide: What is an Engulfing Pattern and How to Trade It?
Piercing Pattern Candlestick Explained: How to Trade It - Step-By-Step Guide
Morning & Evening Star Candlestick Patterns – How to Trade Market Reversals with Confidence
How to Start Day Trading
5 Steps to Start Day Trading: A Strategic Guide for Beginners
8 Steps How to Start Forex Day Trading in 2025: A Beginner’s Step-by-Step Guide
3 Steps to Build a Trading Routine for Consistency and Discipline - Day Trading Edition
The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Market Trends and Price Action
Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil
How to Identify Risk-On and Risk-Off Market Sentiment: A Complete Trader’s Guide
How to Trade Risk-On and Risk-Off Sentiment - With Technical Confirmation
The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Market Trends and Price Action
Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money?
Why Smart Money Concepts Work: The Truth Behind Liquidity and Price Action
Mastering the Market with Smart Money Concepts: 5 Strategic Approaches
Mastering Candlestick Pattern Analysis with the SMC Strategy for Day Trading
Understanding Liquidity Sweep: How Smart Money Trades Liquidity Zones in Forex, Gold, US Indices
The SMC Playbook Series Part 4: How to Confirm Trend Reversal & Direction using SMC
The SMC Playbook Series Part 5: The Power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis in Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Fair Value Gaps Explained: How Smart Money Leaves Footprints in the Market
The Best Time to Use Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Why Timing Is Everything in Trading SMC
How to Trade the London Session Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Trading Psychology and Continuous Improvement Contents
The Mental Game of Execution - Debunking the Common Trading Psychology
5 Steps to Backtest a Trading Strategy with AI: A Step-by-Step Guide
Managing Trading Losses: Why You Can Be Wrong and Still Win Big in Trading
The Hidden Threat in Trading: How Performance Anxiety Sabotages Your Edge
Why You Fail in Trading: You Don’t Have Enough Capital to Survive
Why 90% of Retail Traders Fail Even with Profitable Trading Strategies
The Top 10 Best Trading Books That Changed My Mindset, Strategy & Performance
Discovering Your Trader Profile: What Kind of Trader Are You?
Follow me for more daily market insights!
Jasper Osita - LinkedIn - FXStreet - YouTube
This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
