Bitcoin’s Rally Faces Its Moment of Truth at $106K Resistance

The cryptocurrency market is currently at a critical juncture — The king, ₿TC (Bitcoin), is currently flirting with all-time highs.

Crypto enthusiasts are calling for a sweep towards $120,000, while Donald J. Trump candidly advised Americans to buy stocks. Meanwhile, my friends that never trade are calling me up, asking if they should buy Bitcoin.

It’s exactly at times like these where I’m extra cautious, and that old saying from Warren Buffet begins to ring in my head:

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

So, we’re basically at a stage where Bitcoin could make a correction, or break towards new highs. What are key factors we should now be aware of? Let’s get into it.

Crypto Fear and Greed Has Spiked Back into Greed (74)

According to the CMC Fear and Greed Index, the cryptocurrency markets are as exuberant as ever; spiking from a neutral reading of 53 to a greedy sentiment of 74 today. When this value reaches 80 (Extreme Greed), things tend to get a little dicey—price certainly can still move higher from there, but not for much longer. 

Keep an eye on this index in the coming days and weeks, as when we cross into EXTREME GREED, that’s a cautionary sign to begin unloading your spot crypto (not exactly go short), because exhaustion is just around the corner.

Source: Coin Market Cap Fear and Greed Index

Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Support on Bitcoin 1D Chart

I’ve opened with a cautionary title —Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance at $106K— and if you take a look at the current price action, we are rejecting from the $104,750 to $106,300 zone.

This zone draws from the wicks formed in February, and serves as the first line of defense for Bitcoin bears.

However, if Bitcoin can trail even higher, we’d be entering a critical bearish zone — marked by the wicks of two All-Time Highs formed in December 2024 and January 2025.

With the RSI being overbought on the daily timeframe, the verdict here, at least to me, is clear: be extremely, extremely cautious of a pullback. The rally has stretched on for a month, and there are major resistances overhead.

This current place could reject Bitcoin down towards the consolidation zone between $94,120 to $97,525, but the ultimate support barrier BTC must hold is the $90,650 to $92,000 region (Range Lows from December to February).

Another of our analysts thinks Bitcoin could revisit $93,450.

VERDICT: Watch for a potential retracement, allowing RSI to cool off.

Where to expect a top, or Extreme Greed Sentiment on Bitcoin?

Here comes the interesting part: Where should hopefuls on crypto exit a potential top? 

An extremely helpful indicator is the Logarithmic Regression Curve (available on TradingView) applied to the BLX, Bitcoin Historical Chart, on the weekly timeframe (log scale).

This indicator has shown its capability in catching Bitcoin’s tops at its outer bands, with most cycles topping out nearly exactly at the second band. According to this indicator, Bitcoin’s remaining targets for cycle highs are $119,895, and $166,840.

Here’s a really interesting tidbit about this current cycle — we still have not reached the midpoint of the red outer band, which suggests it still remains as a valid target.

Of course, do your own research when it comes to using unconventional indicators; what happened in the past may not repeat in the exact same way, so nothing really is guaranteed.

VERDICT: Bitcoin may enter dangerously euphoric stages at $119,895 onwards, according to the logarithmic regression curve.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave: Bullish Impulse Completed

DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. Trading comes with substantial risk, leading to possible loss of your capital. Traders are advised to do their own due diligence before investing.