BTC Breaks $124K as 401(k) Adoption and Fed Cut Bets Fuel Rally Toward $132K

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ACY Securities - Jasper Osita

Aug 15, 2025

Bitcoin breaks above $124K, fueled by dovish Fed bets, ETF inflows, and the landmark U.S. 401(k) crypto inclusion decision.
Macro tailwinds and strong market structure keep upside momentum intact, with $128K and $132K as the next major liquidity targets.
Short-term scenarios split between a $123K H4 FVG hold for continuation, or a mild pullback toward $120K before resuming the uptrend.

Bitcoin Rallies to Fresh Highs - Fed Policy, Institutional Flows & Retirement Access Drive Momentum

Bitcoin is riding a wave of macro and structural tailwinds, climbing to $121,792 on August 14, 2025, as traders digest dovish Fed expectations and regulatory breakthroughs. The latest boost comes from the U.S. government’s decision to allow cryptocurrency allocations in 401(k) retirement plans - a move that significantly alters the long-term demand profile for Bitcoin and other top digital assets.

Why the 401(k) Decision Matters for Bitcoin

The 401(k) market represents trillions of dollars in managed retirement savings. Even a small allocation toward Bitcoin could inject substantial liquidity and steady demand into the market. Unlike short-term speculative flows, 401(k) allocations are:

Long-Term Oriented: Funds are often held for decades, reducing market churn.
Systematically Contributed: Monthly payroll contributions mean consistent buying pressure, regardless of market volatility.
Institutionally Managed: Larger custodians and asset managers will need to source Bitcoin directly, amplifying regulated demand.

For Bitcoin specifically, this move cements its role as a legitimate asset class in mainstream U.S. retirement portfolios - a milestone that could bring both credibility and stability to the market over time. It also supports the adoption-driven price thesis that Citi recently emphasized: price is increasingly a function of who’s buying and how consistently, not just supply metrics.

Technical Outlook: BTC’s Path to New Highs

Bitcoin’s recent rally unfolded exactly in line with the bullish bias identified earlier in the week.

Bitcoin is now holding firm after a strong impulsive breakout coming from the $116K levels, origin of the upside continuation, now trading around $124k. The move has cleanly cleared the previous all-time high level, signaling demand and the potential for more highs.

Momentum Confirmation: After breaking out of the $120k, BTC continued with momentum, adding the 401(k) as fuel for more upside.
Next Upside Targets:
- $128,000 – First major upside liquidity pool above current levels.
- $132,000 – Extended target aligned with Fibonacci projection and higher-timeframe resistance.
Market Structure: All near-term resistance levels have been swept, positioning and gearing BTC toward untested highs, close to psychological levels.

Bullish Scenario: $123k + H4 FVG Support Levels

Bitcoin has extended its breakout beyond the $120k previous resistance turned-support and is now testing the H4 Fair Value Gap. The structure suggests a potential continuation toward new highs if price respects the immediate support zones.

Bullish Triggers:

H4 FVG Hold – A successful defense of the $122k-$123k zone signals upside continuation as buying pressure is still in play.
Support Zone Reaction – Pullbacks into the $122k support zone (confluence of structure and prior breakout level) holding firm would confirm re-accumulation and another line of defense for upside.
Continuation Pattern – Higher lows forming above the $123K region would pave the way for an extended upside push.

Targets:

1st Target: $128,000 – Next liquidity zone above current price.
2nd Target: $132,000 – Major higher timeframe objective.

Invalidation:

A close below $122k followed by sustained trading under $121k would weaken the bullish setup and open a deeper retracement toward $119,800–$118,000.

This bullish pathway aligns with Bitcoin’s strong macro tailwinds - dovish Fed expectations, 401(k) retirement plan inclusion, and ETF inflows - making any shallow pullback potentially an opportunity for continuation toward fresh all-time highs.

Bearish Scenario: Short-Term FVG Rejection & Pullback

Bitcoin is currently reacting to the H4 Fair Value Gap at $123k, with early signs of rejection. While the higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, a corrective move could develop before continuation toward new highs.

Bearish Triggers:

H4 FVG Rejection – Sustained rejection from the $123k zone could signal that short-term buyers are taking profits and a deeper pullback.
Support Zone Break – A move through the $121k–$122k support zone would expose deeper liquidity levels.
Lower H4 FVG Target – Price could seek the next H4 Fair Value Gap near $120k before buyers potentially re-engage.

Targets:

1st Target: $122k–$122,500 – Immediate structure support and retest zone.
2nd Target: $122k–$121k – Lower H4 FVG as a potential liquidity draw.

Invalidation:

A decisive H4 close above $124k would weaken the pullback setup and put the bullish continuation scenario firmly back in play.

This short-term bearish pathway is more of a corrective phase than a reversal, aligning with the overall bullish market structure. If macro sentiment remains supportive and buyers step back in at key demand zones, the pullback could serve as a launchpad for the next leg toward $128K and $132K.

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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

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BTC Breaks $124K as 401(k) Adoption and Fed Cut Bets Fuel Rally Toward $132K

Bitcoin Rallies to Fresh Highs - Fed Policy, Institutional Flows & Retirement Access Drive Momentum

Why the 401(k) Decision Matters for Bitcoin

Technical Outlook: BTC’s Path to New Highs

Bullish Scenario: $123k + H4 FVG Support Levels

Bearish Scenario: Short-Term FVG Rejection & Pullback

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