Commodities Outlook: Natural Gas Consolidates Amid Supply Concerns, Gold Bears Await CPI Catalyst

Natural Gas Market Outlook: Sideways Consolidation Amid Supply Concerns

Natural Gas continues to consolidate below the 3.704 resistance, showing no clear signs of reversal as geopolitical tensions and halted Russian gas transits drive supply uncertainties. A potential bullish breakout above 3.958 could signal continuation to higher levels, while a sharp reversal could target 2.921.

We have been in a steady upside move with Natural Gas since February 2024.

We have not seen any significant downside potential for Natural Gas as we are only consolidating since December 2024.

We are currently testing the 3.704 resistance level and we are not seeing any signs of reversal just yet.

We could trade to at 3.958 level and the scenarios that we could anticipate are:

1. Bullish: Breaks 3.958 then goes back at the previous resistance turned support and gets sustained.
2. Bearish: Sweeps the 3.958 and sharply reverses reaching the 2.921 level.

As of now, we are on a sideways price action. Trump Tariffs could also affect Nat Gas as taxes increases.

The halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on January 1, 2025, has heightened European reliance on LNG imports, potentially tightening global supply and exerting upward pressure on prices.

If we are indeed having signs of reversal for NatGas, it would be obvious on the structure. But right now, we are still ranging and awaiting for a test of the immediate high of 3.958.

Monitor the 3.958 level closely. A confirmed break and retest could offer a long entry, targeting higher resistance zones. Conversely, a rejection or false breakout could provide a short opportunity toward the 2.921 support.

Gold Market Recap: Bearish Sequence Amid CPI-Driven Uncertainty

Gold remains under bearish pressure, forming lower highs and lows after invalidating hourly support levels. Although the broader technical outlook is bullish, momentum is currently lacking. CPI data due today could be the catalyst for a directional move.

Yesterday’s Gold has invalidated the lows on the hourly. We were hoping for a bullish scenario, but Gold is not strong enough to reach the All-Time High level 2942.69.

For reference: https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/forex-market-recap-eur-gbp-gold-analysis-j-o-02112025-124240/

Gold has not regained strength so far and Gold has been creating a bearish sequence, with a lower highs and lows pattern.

Though overall, we are still looking bullish on technicals but we might be on pause right now and waiting for intraday signs of reversal.

We could potentially retrace back inside the previous daily range and test the equilibrium level.

Key market driver that could affect Gold is the CPI print that will be release later today.

Await intraday signs of reversal around key support levels. A bullish reaction could provide a long entry with a target at equilibrium levels, while continued bearish momentum might justify short positions until a trend change is confirmed.