Commodity Markets: Gold Continues its Surge, GAS on Pullback, Oil at Support Level

Commodities Overview

• Gold: Remains the dominant safe-haven asset amid growing global uncertainties, with price targets still pointing higher. Keep an eye on geopolitical events and dollar movements for further catalysts.
• Natural Gas: Pullback Before the Next Leg Up?

After reaching a high of $4.340, gas is retracing to the $3.644 - $3.905 range. A breakout above recent highs could confirm a bullish continuation.

• Oil: Holding Above $70.125 Support

Oil remains range-bound, testing the $70.125 level but failing to break lower. A decisive move could determine the next direction.

Gold Surges Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Dollar Weakness

Gold remains in a strong bullish trend after testing the 2942.69 resistance level, showing no signs of slowing down. As global uncertainties mount, investors continue to seek safety in gold, reinforcing its status as a premier safe-haven asset.

Key Geopolitical Drivers Behind Gold’s Rally

Recent geopolitical developments have significantly influenced gold prices, propelling them toward record highs. Key factors include:

1. US-Russia Negotiations: High-level talks between the United States and Russia aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict have introduced uncertainty in global markets. While these discussions could lead to de-escalation, the ambiguity surrounding their outcomes has driven investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.
2. Escalating Trade Tensions: President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports, including steel and aluminum, has heightened fears of a global trade war. This uncertainty has increased demand for gold, with prices nearing all-time highs.
3. Central Bank Gold Accumulation: Nations such as China and Russia have significantly increased their gold reserves, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical uncertainties. This strategic shift has bolstered global demand for gold, contributing to its price surge.
4. Middle East Conflicts

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including recent escalations involving Iran and Israel, have intensified geopolitical risks. Such uncertainties typically enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, further supporting its price ascent.

Technical Outlook: Next Targets $3,000 - $3,100

These developments highlight gold’s resilience during geopolitical turmoil, with price targets of $3000 - $3100 still intact as 2942.69 holds strong without signs of reversal.

As mentioned in this previous post, targets at $3000 - $3100 is still intact since 2942.69 is holding and we are not seeing any signs of weakness and reversal for the downside.

Weak US Dollar Fuels Gold Demand

Gold continues to gain traction as the U.S. dollar weakens. With expectations of interest rate cuts, new tariffs, and persistent geopolitical tensions, the dollar’s attractiveness is waning, leading investors to favor gold.

Technical Outlook for Gold

Gold traders should monitor potential breakouts from the macro range. A micro range formation above the macro breakout could present entry opportunities, with stops placed behind the breakout structure or the micro range itself.

GAS: On a Pullback

After hitting a new high at 4.340, GAS is pulling back toward the 3.644 - 3.905 range. A rebound from this zone could indicate a continuation of the uptrend.

For bullish momentum to resume, GAS needs to break above its recent highs and establish a bullish sequence. Traders should look for breakout confirmations before entering positions.

OIL: Testing the 70.125 Support Level

Oil remains range-bound, struggling to define its next move. A breakdown attempts at 70.125 failed, keeping the market in a state of indecision. Traders should watch for a clear breakout to confirm directional bias.

With gold surging amid geopolitical uncertainty, GAS pulling back for a potential recovery, and oil consolidating at key support, market participants should stay vigilant for technical breakouts and evolving macroeconomic shifts.

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