EUR/USD on New Highs and the Weakening USD – Discover the Reasons

FX market paints a picture of uncertainty and indecision, with key currency pairs navigating within narrow trading ranges. The lack of conviction over the market's direction is evident, underscored by the G10 3-month implied volatility index residing below one standard deviation from the long-term average, indicating limited price action.

Despite this apparent stagnation, subtle shifts in front-end volatility hint at a potential awakening. The one-week implied volatility in EUR/USD has surged from 5.0% to nearly 7.0%, fuelled in part by the month-end turnover and upcoming event risks. Notable among these are the semi-annual testimony, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and the eagerly awaited jobs report, all poised to inject a dose of volatility into the market.

Economic Calendar for Friday 

As the market awaits these pivotal events, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces the challenging task of providing clarity and conviction to market participants. The big question right now is: Can Powell alter the current lack of conviction prevalent in rates and FX markets? It feels like that the sentiment suggests a balanced view on the outlook for monetary policy may be in store.

Market expectations, currently priced for only a modest 10 basis points more cuts than signalled by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December, may not be swayed by Powell's words alone. The economic data, exhibiting a mixed flow, indicates that three rate cuts this year could be a reasonable estimate. Powell, cautious not to pre-empt FOMC colleagues ahead of the March 20th meeting, is unlikely to suggest an immediate departure from the current dots profile.

A glance at the recent market dynamics reveals a significant shift in a short span. Just over a month ago, the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) market anticipated a staggering 150 basis points of cuts, marking a subsequent reduction of 65 basis points in expected cuts. Recent consumer-focused economic data, portraying a slowing economy and a decline in consumer confidence, could embolden the FOMC in its dovish stance.

Yet, Powell remains poised amid the fluctuating economic indicators. The problem is that only one month of disappointing inflation readings may not be enough for Powell to deviate significantly from the established trends. As the Fed's communication is intricately tied to incoming economic data, Powell's testimony is anticipated to carry a balanced tone, catering to both the doves and the hawks.

In this dynamic environment, where market pricing has already undergone substantial changes, Powell's challenge is to go through the intricacies of economic data and maintain a steady hand on the monetary policy helm. While a brief period of volatility is inevitable, the FX market may ultimately settle back into its current calm market scenario, awaiting further cues from the ECB meeting and the crucial jobs report on the horizon from US.

CME FedWatch Tool – 12/Jun/24

Insights Inspired by MUFG: Credit to Their Analysis for Shaping Some Aspects of This Text

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