just now
- Gold respects key demand at $3,350, buoyed by trade war fears and record central bank accumulation.
- Bullish scenario plays out, with price reacting to the Bullish Fair Value Gap and eyeing breakout above $3,370.
- Technical forecast leans bullish, with $3,400–$3,450 in sight if $3,340 support holds; invalidation below FVG risks $3,310–$3,260 pullback.
Gold Renews Strength, Gears Up for Another Run
Over the past week, gold has tightened its grip as a safe-haven asset, buoyed by increasing global economic uncertainty and trade tensions. U.S. threats of hefty tariffs on the EU and Mexico have driven prices to a three-week peak around $3,354-$3,370 level. Meanwhile, central banks have been accumulating gold at record pace purchasing over 1,000 tons annually, with 43% planning more acquisitions in the next year. This institutional demand underpins gold’s long-term strength.
Tariff Threats + Bank Accumulation
U.S.–EU/Mexico Tariff Threats
President Trump's proposal of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports triggered safe-haven flows into gold, lifting spot prices to $3,355-3,370.
Central Bank Accumulation
World Gold Council data shows central banks buying more gold annually than in the previous decade driving gold to its record high of $3,500 in April.
Bullish Scenario Unfolding from Fair Value Gap
Gold's current price behavior aligns precisely with what we outlined in yesterday’s live trading session: a pullback into the $3,350 Bullish Fair Value Gap, followed by an anticipated continuation.
Current
This clean structure showcases:
- A bullish FVG marked between $3,340-$3,350, acting as support.
- Price dipped slightly after failing to break $3,370, yet held above $3,350, respecting the bullish order flow.
- Our projection was for price to reject the FVG, re-accumulate, and then push up to the $3,370 high with $3,400-$3,420 set as targets.
Bullish Validation:
- We are still bullish unless price breaks below $3,340 (invalidating the FVG).
- If $3,370 breaks cleanly, the next upside targets are $3,400 and $3,450.
- This zone was emphasized as a "must-hold level" for gold bulls to maintain momentum.
Technical Outlook
Bullish Scenario: FVG Rejection and Breakout Toward New Highs
Gold is showing signs of bullish continuation after successfully retesting the $3,350 Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). The recent higher low formed above this level confirms that buyers are stepping in aggressively to defend and hold the line.
Bullish Confirmation:
- Price rejected from the FVG and formed a bullish engulfing candle with follow-through
- Price now eyes the $3,365.77 minor resistance for a breakout.
Invalidation: Break and close below $3,340
Upside Targets:
- $3,400 – Key psychological and structural target
- $3,450 – All-time high level target
This scenario aligns with our current bias bulls remain in control as long as the FVG holds and price continues printing higher lows.
Bearish Scenario: FVG Breakdown Signals Deeper Pullback
If price fails to break and hold above $3,365.77 and closes below the $3,350-$3,340 Bullish FVG, this could trigger a deeper sell-off.
Bearish Trigger:
- Rejection from $3,365.77
- Breakdown below $3,340
Invalidation: Bullish breakout above $3,370
Downside Targets:
- $3,310 – Liquidity zone
- $3,285 – Previous support
- $3,260 – Swing demand area
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