just now
- Dollar (DXY) rebounded off 98.700 after invalidating a key FVG, supported by a strong JOLTS print.
- Gold (XAU/USD) remains firm above $3330, showing resilience despite rising yields and a stronger dollar.
- All eyes now on ADP, ISM, and NFP to confirm whether dollar strength continues or gold reclaims momentum.
Dollar Recovering Amidst All-Time Downside Move
Dollar has exhibit signs of recovery as it bounced off the 98.700 level, invalidating the 4-hour fair value gap resting between the 99.112-98.871 level.
This invalidation was not just purely data-driven; buying pressure had already started intraday at the start of the trading day yesterday. The move gained conviction after the JOLTS Job Openings report showed 7.391 million positions, well above the expected 7.1 million which added to dollar’s rebound.
This data reinforces the view that the U.S. labor market remains tight, complicating the outlook for rate cuts and providing a supportive backdrop for the dollar.
Gold Remains Resilient Despite Dollar Rebound
Mentioned in my last analysis: Gold eyes $3,400 as Dollar struggles ahead of NFP, $3325-$3345 could act as a support level for a renewed upside move on gold. The scenario outlined materialised and if we are looking for a sustained upside, we’d like this to stay in tact by not trading and closing through it on a downside trajectory.
The last line of defense for this upside move is the $3330 low remaining intact. We don’t price to revisit this level again or else, we might see a deeper pullback on gold.
The fact that gold hasn't broken down despite rising real yields and dollar strength suggests some degree of underlying demand, possibly from geopolitical risks, portfolio hedging, or traders positioning ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
Key Data Ahead: ADP, ISM, and NFP in Focus
If these reports echo the strength shown in JOLTS, we could see another leg higher for DXY and potentially, adding capping gold’s upside. On the flip side, if labor and services data underwhelm, gold could find a fresh bid and retest the resistance level near the $3400 level.
Bottom Line: Gold Steady, But At a Crossroads
Gold’s ability to hold above above $3330 in the face of a stronger dollar shows that bearish pressure hasn’t fully taken control, more upside is still aheaad. But that could change quickly depending on incoming data. For now, price action remains range-bound and we yet to see a move testing the highs and lows with the incoming catalysts this week.
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