Gold Holds Ground as Trade War Deepens, Ukraine Heats Up, and Iran Re-Enters the Spotlight
ACY Securities - Jasper Osita
Gold Holds Ground as Trade War Deepens, Ukraine Heats Up, and Iran Re-Enters the Spotlight
Geopolitical risk has returned to center stage, reigniting volatility across global markets.
A wave of fresh developments — from worsening trade standoffs to battlefield escalations — is challenging the recent calm and pushing safe-haven demand sharply higher.
Here’s what’s unfolding across the global stage:
- U.S.-China trade tensions intensified, with both sides doubling down on tariffs and rhetoric.
- Russia’s Ukraine offensive escalated, drawing in new actors and shaking European stability.
- Iran revived nuclear talks with a trillion-dollar offer, introducing both hope and risk to Middle East markets.
U.S.-China Trade Tensions Deepen: Global Risks on the Rise
The U.S.-China trade relationship suffered another major setback this week, with fresh tariff actions and hardened rhetoric intensifying market fears.
Despite earlier hopes for de-escalation, both sides have dug in deeper, raising new risks for supply chains, inflation, and global growth.
Key developments:
- Agricultural Blow: China canceled large U.S. pork and soybean orders, slashing vessel traffic by over 40%.
- Small Business Pressure: Around 80% of U.S. small businesses dependent on Chinese imports are facing bankruptcy threats under new 145% tariffs.
- Selective Exemptions: China spared some U.S. goods like semiconductors from retaliation, hinting at efforts to limit domestic damage.
- Supply Chain Stress: Logistics providers warn of sharp slowdowns in shipping corridors, renewing global inflation fears.
Adding to the tension, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that tariffs will stay unless China offers meaningful concessions.
There are still no formal trade talks scheduled, and Washington is accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains through partnerships with India, Japan, and South Korea.
Russia-Ukraine: Spring Offensive Escalates Conflict
As if economic tensions weren’t enough, geopolitical risks flared up again across Europe’s eastern flank.
Russia launched a sweeping spring offensive over the weekend, sharply escalating fighting across northeastern Ukraine — and dragging new players into the battlefield.
Latest battlefield and diplomatic developments:
- Russian Offensive: Russian forces surged into Sumy and Kharkiv, ramping up artillery and drone attacks across contested zones.
- Foreign Fighters Surface: North Korea confirmed it has deployed troops to assist Russian forces, while Ukrainian forces captured individuals identified as Chinese nationals aiding Russia.
- Ceasefire Skepticism: Putin’s announced three-day unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day (May 8) is widely seen by Kyiv and NATO allies as a political gesture, not a genuine step toward peace.
- Trump’s Push for Peace: President Trump is pushing for a peace framework within two weeks, but fundamental disagreements over sovereignty and borders are keeping a real deal out of reach.
The war is widening beyond Russia and Ukraine — a worrying sign for European stability, energy markets, and global risk assets.
U.S.-Iran: A Trillion-Dollar Nuclear Bargain?
Amid the louder headlines of war and trade, a quieter but equally important development has unfolded. Iran has offered a major economic incentive to restart nuclear talks — a rare opening that could reshape the Middle East’s political and financial landscape if it gains traction.
- Massive Economic Offer: Iran has proposed opening up over a trillion dollars' worth of potential U.S. business investment if sanctions are lifted.
- Backdoor Diplomacy: Indirect negotiations facilitated by Oman brought U.S. and Iranian officials into preliminary discussions in Muscat.
- Iran’s Concessions: Tehran proposed a phased rollback of uranium enrichment and the reinstatement of international inspections.
- Regional Complexity: Iran accused Israel of trying to disrupt talks, underscoring the delicate regional balance surrounding any new deal.
If these talks gain momentum, it could mean a significant reshaping of oil markets, regional security alignments, and investor sentiment toward emerging markets. This could also ease tensions, allowing calmness in the markets to take its ground.
Gold: Volatility Mirrors Rising Fear
After an initial dip on hopes of easing trade tensions, gold quickly rebounded as reality set in — the world’s risks are growing, not shrinking.
- Early Dip: Gold prices fell on April 25 from a $3500 mark as news of minor tariff exemptions sparked brief optimism.
- Renewed Strength: Ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the collapse of U.S.-China talks have support gold, holding above $3300 level.
- Investor Demand: Demand for gold ETFs and physical bullion remains robust as traders hedge against both political and economic volatility.
Daily
Currently, Gold is holding its ground after bouncing from the Daily Fair Value Gap resting at 3233.59 - 3282.00 level. With this level still intact, weakness is still far from being obvious. More upside is still ahead as uncertainty looms.
4-Hour
The 4-hour timeframe shows that gold is positioning itself ahead of this week’s key events, with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report — the main highlight — set to drive major volatility.
Potential Scenarios
- Bullish:
- Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data,
- A breakout above the current 4-hour range,
- Renewed geopolitical tensions involving the U.S.
- Bearish:
- Strong U.S. data prints despite fragile market confidence,
- A breakdown below the current 4-hour range,
- Materialization of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire,
- De-escalation of U.S.-China tariff tensions,
- Positive progress toward a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
Key US Data This Week
A packed week of key U.S. data — including GDP, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing, and Non-Farm Payrolls — could inject major volatility into the dollar.
Stronger-than-expected prints may boost the greenback and weigh on gold short term, while weaker data could revive Fed rate cut bets and support gold upside.
With geopolitical risks already driving safe-haven demand, gold remains well-positioned to benefit if uncertainty deepens or economic momentum shows cracks.
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