just now
- Gold continues to build bullish momentum, reclaiming key Fair Value Gaps as price eyes a breakout above $3,370.
- Institutional forecasts from HSBC, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley project gold reaching up to $4,000 amid fiscal uncertainty and global risk.
- Geopolitical tensions and tariff deadlines are keeping markets in risk-off mode, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal above key technical zones.
Gold Sustained Recovery Amidst Risk-Off Mode
Over the past few sessions, gold has continued to solidify its recovery structure, confirming a shift in sentiment from bearish caution to bullish momentum. While many were anticipating a deeper retracement after the recent highs, gold bulls seem to be taking control again, driven by a combination of strong institutional forecasts, technical reclaim of key levels, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This development aligns with our earlier forecast Gold Price Forecast: Bullish and Bearish Scenario Amid Israel-Iran Conflict and US Tariff Tensions.
Fundamental Tailwinds: Institutional Forecasts Support Continued Upside
Gold’s bullish momentum isn’t just technical—it’s being fueled by institutional conviction:
- HSBC recently revised its 2025 forecast for gold to $3,215, with potential spikes up to $3,600 amid fiscal uncertainty and policy shifts.
- Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan also project upside toward $3,675–$4,000, citing gold’s rising role as a hedge against economic volatility.
These forecasts are no longer just speculation - they’re being backed by price action.
Geopolitical Risk: Israel-Iran Tensions Reinforce Risk-Off Demand
In the Middle East, the Israel–Iran conflict remains a central catalyst for gold’s safe-haven flows. While no full-scale escalation has occurred in recent days, tensions remain high, particularly with ongoing cyber and proxy threats from both sides.
Markets remain in risk-off mode, especially as global investors reduce exposure to equities and rotate capital into defensive assets. Gold has once again become a geopolitical hedge, further fueled by tariff tensions between the U.S. and China ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
Technical Outlook
Gold has been advancing with a sustained move to the upside and little signs of strength invalidation. This upside momentum is also being supported with 3 4-Hour Fair Value Gaps that is still in-tact.
With institutions revising forecast for new highs on Gold, we could anticipate Gold to potentially break the All-Time High level at $3,500.
Bullish Scenario: FVG Reclaim and Breakout Continuation
Gold is currently testing the $3,360 level for new highs. We could see further upside if we see:
- A clean breakout above $3,370 confirms bullish intent and opens the path to $3,400–$3,420. (This was our outlined target based on the previous analysis: Gold Price Forecast: Bullish and Bearish Scenario Amid Israel-Iran Conflict and US Tariff Tensions)
- Fair Value Gaps remain intact:
- 1st Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,320 - $3,325
- 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,310 - $3,314
- 3rd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,300 - $3,302
- Favorable risk sentiment (e.g., risk-off tone, weak USD, or dovish Fed narrative)
Targets:
- $3,400 - $3,450
Bearish Scenario: Distribution and Breakdown Through FVGs
Alternatively, the current consolidation may reflect distribution at premium pricing, especially after failing to break above the $3,370 area convincingly.
- Fair Value Gaps fail to hold:
- 1st Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,320 - $3,325
- 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,310 - $3,314
- 3rd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,300 - $3,302
- Consolidation near or at $3,300 could pose a risk for further pullback on Gold
- Shift in sentiment toward risk-on, USD strength, or hawkish Fed messaging
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