Gold Resumes Upside Move: $3,500 Level Incoming?
ACY Securities - Jasper Osita
Gold has always thrived on uncertainty — and the past few weeks have offered plenty of it.
From trade tensions flaring back up to growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal position, the yellow metal has seen a renewed wave of interest. This isn’t just about inflation hedging anymore. It’s about market positioning, institutional demand, and the broader macro signals flashing caution across the board.
Macro Drivers Behind the Renewed Strength
- U.S. Fiscal Concerns Fuel Safe-Haven Demand
Growing fears around the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt ceiling drama are pushing investors toward traditional stores of value. With long-term confidence in the dollar facing pressure, gold is becoming the preferred hedge — especially as talks of spending cuts and political standoffs intensify in Washington.
- Central Banks Are Buying Gold
2025 continues the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves across emerging markets. Unlike the retail hype cycles of the past, institutions are shunning digital alternatives and doubling down on physical gold — reinforcing its role as a stable and strategic reserve asset.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Tariffs Return
Gold's recent surge is also tied to renewed global trade friction. The latest: a sharp rise in Switzerland’s gold imports from the U.S., hitting their highest levels since 2012 after the U.S. excluded precious metals from its tariff list. This signals rising demand amid global protectionism — and growing uncertainty in cross-border trade flows.
- Dovish Fed Commentary Hints at Lower Yields
While inflation remains sticky, recent Fed commentary — including dovish signals from Governor Waller — has markets wondering whether interest rate cuts could come sooner than expected. Lower real yields historically support gold, and the correlation remains strong in 2025.
Where Is Gold Headed? Institutional Forecasts for 2025
- Citi has revised its short-term gold target to $3,500 per ounce, citing increased geopolitical volatility and dollar weakness.
- Bank of America is even more bullish, forecasting $4,000 gold by year-end, driven by institutional demand and rising global uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Is Gold About to Break Out?
Despite the sharp pullback mid-May— with gold dipping near $3,100 — the overall structure still looks bullish most especially, after failing to breakdown and have a bearish follow-through at $3,100.
After consolidating for quite some time, Gold slipped down the range but only took out the support level in confluence to reacting at the Daily Fair Value Gap.
With this failed move, Gold is still on the move for more upside potential.
On the 4H timeframe, gold appears to be forming a tight accumulation range.
Levels to watch:
- Sweep below $3,280 level
- $3,239.41- $3,261.71 Fair Value Gap Zone
Don’t Ignore the Dollar: A Major Piece of the Puzzle
A recent bounce slowed gold’s advance, but the macro outlook suggests more downside risk for the dollar — especially if rate cut expectations intensify or if U.S. growth disappoints.
A clean rejection in the DXY could open the floodgates for gold bulls.
As long as 100.086 level holds as a resistance, we’d like to see more downside for Dollar with 97.921 2025 All-Time Low target.
What to Watch Next
- Breakout Confirmation: Watch for daily and 4H closes above key resistance zones at $3,360.
- Dollar Weakness: A sustained DXY drop below key support could turbocharge gold’s momentum.
- Macro Catalysts: Core PCE data, employment reports, and further Fed commentary will drive intraday volatility — but the bigger theme remains macro uncertainty.
Final Thoughts: Gold’s Role in a Shifting Global Narrative
In a world where U.S. debt is growing, the dollar is under pressure, and central banks are rotating toward gold, the path of least resistance appears to be higher.
We’re not just seeing a reaction to inflation or interest rates — we’re witnessing a revaluation of what constitutes “value” in global portfolios. Gold isn’t just a hedge. In 2025, it’s looking more like a primary driver of market sentiment.
If the technical structure holds and macro uncertainty persists, we could be looking at a breakout year for gold — one where even $4,000 no longer feels like a stretch.
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