Gold’s New Forecast for 2025: Is $3700 the Next Stop?
ACY Securities - Jasper Osita
Overview
Gold prices surged to record highs, reaffirming its status as a premier safe-haven asset amid escalating global trade tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.
The yellow metal's rally was fueled by a confluence of factors, including intensified U.S.–China tariff disputes, central bank acquisitions, bearish US data and investor rotation from the dollar to Europe and Asian assets.
- Trade Tensions: Escalating U.S.–China tariffs have intensified market volatility.
- Currency Dynamics: A weakening U.S. dollar enhances gold's attractiveness.
- Central Bank Demand: Increased purchases support gold's price stability.
- Investor Behavior: Shift from traditional assets to gold amid economic uncertainties.
- Price Forecasts: Analysts project continued growth, with targets up to $3700 by year-end.
Escalation in U.S.–China Tariffs
The trade standoff between the U.S. and China intensified as both nations imposed steep tariffs on each other's goods. The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. products. This tit-for-tat escalation has heightened fears of a prolonged economic slowdown, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold.
Dollar Depreciation Enhances Gold Appeal
The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-year low, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Dollar already tapped the 1st layer of volume imbalance at 100.065 - 100.700. As long as we are below that level, we could see further downside with the greenback.
For the previous forecast, refer to my previous blog: https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/usd-struggles-tariff-recession-fears-j-o-04142025-102157/
Analysts from Commerzbank noted that the dollar's decline is eroding its status as a safe asset, leading investors to consider gold as a viable alternative.
Robust Central Bank Gold Buying Continues
Gold’s momentum in recent months has been strongly underpinned by persistent central bank demand, which remains a key structural driver of the current bull trend.
According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks collectively added over 1,045 tonnes of gold to their reserves in 2024, marking one of the highest annual purchases on record. This trend has carried over into 2025, with Q1 data showing net positive inflows, particularly from emerging market economies and countries looking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.
For reference: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2024/central-banks
Why Are Central Banks Buying?
- De-dollarization Strategy: With growing concerns over the weaponization of the U.S. dollar in global sanctions and trade conflicts, several countries — notably China, India, Russia, and Turkey — are actively reducing dollar reserves and increasing gold holdings to shield their currencies from external shocks.
- Geopolitical Hedge: In an era of increasing geopolitical instability, gold serves as a neutral reserve asset. Central banks view it as liquid, credit-risk-free, and independent of foreign policy influence, making it a natural hedge.
- Diversification and FX Risk Management: As global reserves swell amid trade surpluses and inflation volatility, central banks are turning to gold as a diversifier against fiat currency depreciation and interest rate volatility.
Implications for the Gold Market
This sustained institutional demand acts as a “price floor” for gold. Unlike speculative flows, central bank purchases are long-term and relatively insensitive to short-term market moves, which contributes to gold’s resilience even during pullbacks.
Investor Shift from Treasuries to Gold
With U.S. Treasuries underperforming due to inflationary pressures and high debt levels, investors are increasingly turning to gold. BlackRock's global chief investment strategist highlighted gold's superior diversification benefits in the current economic climate.
Record Highs and Future Projections
4-Hour
Gold prices surged past the $3200 mark, reaching a record high of $3245.28 per ounce on April 11 and is now trading at new all-time high levels soaring at $3275 as of this posts creation.
We already projected this move since the past weeks with a global turmoil influenced by tariffs and trade wars.
Check out my previous blogs for reference:
https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/gold-hits-record-highs-j-o-03312025-171122/
https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/gold-price-update-next-bull-run-j-o-03272025-113758/
Goldman: $3700 Target on the Horizon for 2025
Analysts from Goldman Sachs have revised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,700, citing strong central bank demand and recession concerns.
Big Picture: Unwinding Longs, But Not Bearish Yet
Institutional traders (typically hedge funds and large speculators) cut back their long exposure significantly this week — closing out over 58,000 long contracts. That’s a meaningful reduction and the largest component of the net change.
However, short positions also declined, suggesting this isn't a pivot into outright bearish bets — but rather a tactical pullback or profit-taking event after gold’s recent rally to record highs.
Potential Pullback
What This Tells Us:
- Profit-Taking After Extreme Bullish Positioning: With net positions sitting close to the bottom of the 52-week range (199,567 vs. 315,390 high), it’s clear institutions had previously built massive long positions. The current drop likely reflects risk reduction, not a reversal in conviction.
- Not a Bearish Flip — Yet: Institutions didn’t aggressively add shorts. In fact, they also trimmed their short exposure. This indicates uncertainty, not necessarily a shift in bias. They’re watching, not attacking.
- Waiting for Confirmation: Institutions may be reducing risk into a key resistance zone (like $3300+) or awaiting more clarity from the Fed, inflation data, or geopolitical developments.
- Pullback Level: For targets at $3300, we could look for pullbacks for long opportunities at: 3233.59 - 3254.73 Volume Imbalance
Final Takeaway
Institutional players are not betting against gold — they’re simply reducing exposure after a strong move. This could lead to short-term consolidation or pullbacks, but long-term demand remains intact, especially with central banks still buying and macro uncertainty elevated.
As geopolitical tensions persist and economic indicators remain volatile, gold is poised to maintain its upward trajectory. Monitor upcoming economic data releases, primarily, updates from tariff policies and central bank policies, which could influence gold's momentum.
Watch for re-accumulation signs on dips — that’s where the next wave of institutional interest may reappear.
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https://acy.com/en/market-news/education/smc-playbook-series-beginners-guide-j-o-04032025-155530/
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