How Long Will the USD Sustain Its Strength?
The USD has encountered marginal progress since the recent robust report on US employment figures. However, its upward momentum has plateaued compared to earlier in the week. Two primary impediments hinder the Dollar's ascent. Firstly, the buoyant growth updates have propelled more cyclically inclined currencies, easing concerns of a looming recession. This pivotal aspect aligns with Goldman Sachs 2024 currency forecasts: Anticipating robust economic growth, currencies on the cyclical periphery are poised to outperform. Secondly, despite a modest recalibration in Fed expectations, parallel adjustments in other markets, such as ECB forecasts, have occurred almost synchronously. This synchronized movement persists, despite additional setbacks in economic data.
In an overview, over the past three months since 2024 projections, Goldman Sachs economists’ experts have elevated the US GDP forecast by a full percentage point. In contrast, the Euro area tracking has receded by two tenths. Surprisingly, this has not translated into substantial differentials in interest rates (Refer to Exhibit 1). Until the cyclical disparities manifest as policy discrepancies, the FX market is likely to grapple with a lack of breakout momentum. Notably, the Japanese Yen remains an exception due to its responsiveness to duration, prompting market attention towards relative value trade expressions for the time being.
Exhibit 1: The divergence in our 2024 GDP forecasts has not translated into any meaningful divergence in the rate differential.
In alignment with the risks highlighted in earlier outlook, I maintain the perspective that the risks lean towards a Dollar exhibiting resilience. Nevertheless, for FX to accelerate like a "fast car with a ticket to anywhere," – Says Goldman Sachs analysts the divergent economic cycles must correspondingly result in disparate policy valuations. As long as inflation remains cooperative, and other policymakers exhibit hesitancy in outpacing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the broad Dollar appears destined to remain in a sluggish trajectory.
Insights Inspired by Goldman Sachs: Credit to Their Analysis for Shaping Some Aspects of This Text
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