How The Israel-Iran Conflict Impact Oil Prices

When tensions flare in the Middle East especially between regional powerhouses like Israel and Iran the oil market doesn’t wait for outcomes. It reacts immediately. In June 2025, as Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure and the threat of retaliation grew, Brent crude surged more than 7% in under 48 hours. These kinds of geopolitical flashpoints don’t just cause headlines they move markets, especially Brent crude and WTI.

But the price spike in oil isn’t only about supply and demand it’s also about psychology and positioning. In wartime, oil becomes more than a commodity; it becomes a symbol of control, power, and risk. And for traders, understanding why oil jumps and how currencies like the Canadian dollar (CAD) follow aren’t optional. It’s a profitable insight.

In this article, we’ll break down why the Israel-Iran conflict affects Brent crude and WTI oil, how the Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role, and how smart traders use these events to position in the FX market particularly in USD/CAD, one of the most sensitive currency pairs to oil shocks.

Why Oil Prices Spike When Conflict Erupts in the Middle East

When war breaks out or tensions rise in the Middle East, oil prices usually soar over 4% in one single day. But why does that happen? It’s not just about what’s happening on the ground. It’s about what the market fears could happen next. And when it comes to oil, those fears run deep.

First, the region itself is critical to the global energy system. Countries like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE sit on massive oil reserves and pump millions of barrels a day. Much of that oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. 

It’s one of the most strategically vital and vulnerable shipping routes in the world. Roughly 1 in every 5 barrels of oil traded globally passes through Hormuz. That makes it a pressure point the market watches obsessively.

So, when Israel and Iran exchange military blows, the fear isn’t just about casualties it’s about the possibility of disrupted oil flow. Could Iran block the Strait? Could missiles damage ports or tankers? Will Western powers retaliate or intervene? Each one of these questions adds uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. The result? Oil prices spike, not just because of actual supply disruption, but because of the perceived risk of disruption.

There’s also the layer of geopolitical alliances. If Iran is attacked and decides to retaliate, it could pressure proxy forces in Iraq or Yemen to target Saudi facilities or tankers. The memory of the 2019 Abqaiq drone strikes, which temporarily knocked out 5% of global oil supply, is still fresh. Traders don’t wait for confirmation they buy insurance through Brent futures, which sends the price climbing.

This is why oil, especially Brent crude, becomes so sensitive during conflict in this part of the world. It’s not just a commodity anymore it becomes a barometer of fear. And when that fear takes over, oil prices go up fast.

How Traders can Trade the WTI Oil on War and the FX Market

When oil prices start rising especially due to conflict like the Israel–Iran situation many traders instinctively look to buy WTI or Brent futures. That’s one way to play it. But for everyday traders, there's another angle that can be just as powerful, if not more so: trading the currencies that are closely linked to oil.

Let’s start with the Canadian dollar (CAD). Canada is a major oil exporter, particularly to the U.S., and its economy benefits when oil prices rise. Higher oil means more revenue for Canadian producers, stronger trade balances, and increased foreign investment in energy infrastructure. As a result, when WTI or Brent surge, the Canadian dollar often strengthens. That’s why you’ll typically see USD/CAD fall because the U.S. dollar is weakening relative to a stronger CAD.

So, if WTI is climbing on war headlines, traders can short USD/CAD to take advantage of the oil-driven CAD strength. The more the conflict threatens oil supply, the more upward pressure builds in crude and the more CAD tends to gain.

On the flip side, some currencies weaken when oil prices rise, especially those from countries that import large amounts of oil. Take the Japanese yen (JPY) and the euro (EUR), for example. Japan imports nearly all its oil, and higher crude prices strain its trade balance and increase inflationary pressure. That usually weakens the yen. Similarly, much of Europe relies on imported energy, and when oil spikes, EUR tends to feel the heat.

That opens another layer of opportunity: traders can go long CAD/JPY or short EUR/CAD. In these pairs, you’re essentially betting on oil strength by taking the side of the oil-exporter (Canada) against the oil-importer (Japan or the Eurozone). These trades can move sharply when Brent or WTI breakout levels are cleared during geopolitical shocks.

There’s also a psychological component to consider. Rising oil prices can spark risk-off behaviour in broader markets equities may fall, volatility may rise, and investors shift into safer assets. That can sometimes lift the U.S. dollar across the board, which may briefly cushion USD/CAD but in oil-driven moves, CAD often overpowers that broader USD support.

So, the playbook becomes simple: if oil is rising due to conflict, and the move is driven by real fears of disrupted supply, then you look to:

• Short USD/CAD to play CAD strength.
• Go long CAD/JPY or short EUR/CAD to pair the strong with the weak.
• Use oil charts (WTI and Brent) as your leading indicators, then wait for confirmation on the currency charts.

You’re not just trading oil you’re trading how oil reshapes global flows. 

What to Watch During Oil-Driven Conflicts

When oil starts moving because of war or political risk, use this checklist to spot trading setups early and act with confidence:

1. Brent or WTI Breaking Higher?

That’s your signal that fear is driving the oil market. Look for clean breakouts above previous resistance levels this often leads to strong follow-through, especially during conflict escalation. 

2. USD/CAD Testing a Top?

If USD/CAD is struggling at a known resistance zone while oil is rising, that’s your opportunity. A rejection candle or bearish confirmation could signal CAD strength consider shorting USD/CAD.

3. Watch Oil-Importing Currencies Like JPY and EUR

When oil gets expensive, countries that rely heavily on imports (like Japan and the Eurozone) suffer. CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD can offer even stronger moves than USD/CAD pairing strength against weakness.

4. Confirm with Market Sentiment

Is risk-off spreading to equities or bond yields? That’s additional fuel for oil-driven FX moves. It means traders aren’t just speculating they’re shifting capital to real safety plays.

When Oil Moves, Everything Moves

Oil doesn’t just react to war it forecasts the impact. When bombs drop or threats are made near key supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, Brent and WTI don’t wait for facts to settle. They price in risk instantly. And from there, the ripple begins into currencies, bond yields, equities, and inflation expectations.

But here’s the key: oil is more than a commodity in moments like this it’s a signal. It tells us where fear is concentrated and where opportunity is forming. When Brent surges and WTI spikes, smart traders don’t just think about barrels they look to the Canadian dollar, to USD/CAD setups, to weakening importers like JPY and EUR, and to the stories unfolding behind the price.

Because if you follow the energy, you’ll often find the next market move before it fully takes shape. And when you learn to read oil not just as a chart, but as a reflection of geopolitical pressure and capital rotation, that’s when you stop reacting and start trading with real structure.

You may be asking one of these questions about Oil, War, Conflicts…

Q: Why do oil prices spike when there’s conflict in the Middle East?

A: Because the region supplies a large portion of the world’s oil especially through the Strait of Hormuz. When tensions rise, traders worry that oil flow could be disrupted. Even the risk of that happening is enough to drive Brent and WTI prices higher, sometimes by 5–10% in just a few days.

Q: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter for oil?

A: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through it daily. When there’s military action or threats in that region, markets immediately fear bottlenecks or blockades causing oil prices to surge.

Q: How can I trade oil moves using currencies instead of futures?

A: Look to the Canadian dollar (CAD), which is closely tied to oil. When oil rises, CAD tends to strengthen so USD/CAD usually falls. You can also look to trade CAD/JPY or EUR/CAD to pair the strong currency (CAD) with weaker ones from oil-importing countries like Japan or those in the Eurozone.

Q: Which currencies weaken when oil prices go up?

A: Generally, the Japanese yen (JPY) and euro (EUR) weaken. Both regions import most of their oil, and higher energy prices hurt their economies. These currencies often fall during oil spikes caused by war or instability.

Q: Is it better to trade Brent or WTI directly, or through FX pairs like USD/CAD?

A: Both approaches can work, but trading FX offers more flexibility for everyday traders. You can use price action on Brent or WTI as your signal and then take positions in USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, or EUR/CAD to profit from currency flow. It’s a cleaner way to leverage oil moves without needing futures access.

Q: What’s the most important signal to confirm an oil-driven FX trade?

A: Price breakouts in Brent or WTI charts combined with rejection or reversal patterns in USD/CAD or CAD/JPY. If oil is surging and CAD pairs are starting to move with it especially during geopolitical tension it’s a strong sign that the trade is real and not just noise.

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