Is the Dollar Rally Just a Trap? Moody’s Downgrade, Sticky Inflation, Fed Policy for 2025
ACY Securities - Jasper Osita
- The U.S. dollar rebounded last week on sticky CPI and strong yields—but Moody’s downgrade exposed cracks in its safe-haven status.
- Short-term strength persists, but long-term dollar sentiment is weakening due to rising debt and global diversification.
- Traders should stay flexible: use DXY as a compass, trade confirmed structures, and prepare for sudden shifts in macro tone.
The U.S. dollar regained some footing last week after sticky April CPI figures and sharply weaker PPI data. Yet even as inflation remains above target and Treasury yields stay firm, doubts about the greenback’s safe-haven role are beginning to surface.
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, combined with growing global diversification away from U.S. assets, sparked a modest retreat in the DXY—raising important questions about longer-term dollar sentiment, despite its short-term technical strength.
Inflation Snapshot: CPI Sticky, PPI Softens
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI YoY | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Headline CPI YoY | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Core CPI MoM | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Headline CPI MoM | +0.2% | +0.3% | -0.1% |
| PPI MoM | -0.5% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
Interpretation:
- CPI shows inflation remains persistent, especially in housing and services.
- PPI’s -0.5% reading signals potential for disinflation in the coming months.
- Markets are now debating whether this divergence justifies a Fed rate cut—or a longer hold.
Fed Outlook: Three Policy Paths Ahead
As inflation data gives mixed signals, the Fed’s next moves remain highly data-dependent. Here’s a breakdown of the current roadmap:
| Scenario | Description | Probability | Dollar Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟩 Prolonged Pause | Fed holds rates through Q3 | High | Supportive for USD |
| 🟨 Late-Year Cut | One cut in Sept/Nov if PCE and jobs weaken | Moderate | Mild USD pullback |
| 🟥 Rate Hike Risk | Inflation resurges and forces hawkish pivot | Low | Strong USD rally |
But even as the dollar gains support from a “higher for longer” Fed stance and firm Treasury yields, underlying risks continue to erode its longer-term footing…
U.S. Credit Downgrade: A Rebound, But Not Out of the Woods
On May 16, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing rising fiscal risks tied to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden and a lack of sustainable policy control. The decision reverberated through currency markets:
- The DXY pulled back from weekly highs following the downgrade
- The dollar weakened notably against the yen and euro
- Traders began questioning the credibility of the USD as a long-term safe haven
Despite last week’s rebound in the greenback, this downgrade served as a stark reminder:
Strong yields may prop up the dollar in the short run—but deeper structural concerns are chipping away at confidence.
If fiscal imbalances remain unaddressed, the dollar could be vulnerable to sustained selling pressure, especially in times of global repricing or risk aversion. In essence, the rebound is real—but the foundation is shaky.
10-Year Treasury Yield: Elevated, But Volatile
The Moody’s downgrade hasn’t just impacted currency sentiment—it’s also reshaping how investors interpret U.S. bond markets. While Treasury yields remain firm, supported by stubborn inflation and delayed rate-cut expectations, the underlying tone has turned more cautious.
Investor appetite for long-term Treasuries is softening. Market participants are beginning to reassess the “risk-free” status of U.S. debt, especially as the fiscal narrative grows more unstable and real yields near critical thresholds.
Currently:
- 10Y Yield: 4.43% (flat on the week)
- Supported by sticky inflation and the Fed’s prolonged pause
- But long-end demand is thinning, with investors demanding a higher premium to hold U.S. paper
- Moody’s downgrade has added another layer of hesitation for institutional buyers
This creates a feedback loop: while higher yields support the dollar in the short term, sustained fiscal concerns could eventually lead to dollar outflows if confidence in U.S. debt sustainability deteriorates further.
Technical Analysis
Dollar is still holding its ground with, still, no clear signs of going under. Price is also currently holding the bullish order block which is currently acting as a support marked as red.
On the 4-Hour chart, USD is currently consolidating and not giving us any signs of momentum on either side. The best approach on Dollar right now, wait for a confirmed break on either side with a full close then wait for a follow-through to confirm that its holding the breakpoint level.
If the case is we have a stronger dollar, we’d like to see a downside move in favor of the dollar against the foreign currencies and vice verse.
USD Bias Map
A snapshot of how the U.S. dollar is performing across the majors based on macro, yield, and technical factors.
| Pair | Bias | Narrative (Macro + Technical) |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ✅ Bearish Bias | Price is consolidating near structure lows (1.07). ECB expected to cut in June while USD stays supported by yields. Bias remains bearish—but if DXY weakens, a squeeze toward 1.125 can’t be ruled out. |
| GBP/USD | ⚖️ Neutral/Bearish | Market in tightening consolidation. Awaiting UK CPI (May 22) for breakout catalyst which can be triggered above 1.335. Short bias favored below 1.315, but wait for confirmation from both DXY and GBP strength/weakness. |
| AUD/USD | ✅ Bearish Bias | Clear rejections from supply zone, momentum slowing. China exposure + global risk sentiment weak. Favor downside as long as below 0.634. Watch DXY—if it weakens, be cautious fading AUD. |
| NZD/USD | ✅ Bearish Bias | Broke lower structure post-sweep; price rejected re-entry into range. Structure confirms bearish momentum. Macro supports downside—but reassess if DXY loses 100 level. |
| USD/JPY | ⚠️ Bullish on Dips | In pullback mode but still structurally bullish. Prefer buying dips toward 143.997–144.821 only if DXY confirms strength. Be cautious of sharp yen spikes or intervention talk. |
| USD/CHF | ✅ Bullish Bias | Break and retest of consolidation zone + clean Fair Value Gap support. Technical structure favors higher. Still, monitor DXY—CHF can catch bid if global risk worsens. |
Summary Insights
- Strongest Bearish Cases: NZD/USD and AUD/USD — both showing technical exhaustion and rejection from key levels alongside a weak macro environment.
- Strongest Bullish Setups: USD/CHF — with clean breakout and structural retest, and USD/JPY (on dips) if yield strength persists.
- Neutral/Ranging: GBP/USD — technical indecision meets upcoming event risk (UK CPI). Treat with caution unless breakout confirms.
Professional Note: Stay Flexible
The macro backdrop currently supports a mildly bullish dollar, but cracks are forming under the surface—fiscal concerns, downgraded credit rating, and rising global diversification ("ABUSA").
As traders, this means:
“Anchor your bias to structure, but validate it with the dollar index.”
Use DXY as the USD Compass
| DXY Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Above 101.30 | Bullish continuation in play → favor USD longs |
| Below 100 | USD weakening → protect gains or fade rallies |
Day Trading Playbook
Approach the week as a “range-extension + breakout environment” with these intraday guidelines:
- Session Focus: Trade London + New York overlap (8 AM – 12 PM ET) for best volume and volatility
- DXY Bias Filter:
- Above prior NY high → trade USD long setups
- Below NY low → look for USD shorts
- Entry Models:
- Liquidity sweeps + FVG (Fair Value Gap)
- Break of structure (BOS) on 5m/15m → Retest entry
- Avoid late-week overexposure: Core PCE data Friday (May 24) can trigger repositioning
Strategy Tips This Week
- Trade with scenarios, but adapt if the dollar index loses key structure.
- Use liquidity sweeps, BOS (Break of Structure), and FVGs for precision entries.
Weekly Trading Quote
“Risk is what's left over when you think you've thought of everything.”
— Carl Richards
Final Word:
The dollar still commands short-term strength—but cracks are emerging beneath the surface. Sticky inflation supports the Fed’s pause, but Moody’s downgrade and the ABUSA shift remind traders that structural imbalances are creeping in. For now, stay nimble: ride the USD bias during peak hours, but respect reversal zones and be ready for sentiment to turn.
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