Is the Market Too Optimistic About 2 Rate Cuts from the Fed This Year?

The Federal Reserve's recent deliberations, despite acknowledging persistent inflationary pressures, underscore a continued commitment to an accommodative stance. In the wake of the May FOMC meeting, it's evident that while inflation concerns loom, the Fed is cautious about any premature tightening.

If you haven’t yet read my blog post where I talk entirely about the FOMC decision, it would be a very well invested time, it will give you a much more open view on what did actually happen on last Thursday at the FOMC day, here is the link: Click here!

Chair Jerome Powell's remarks during the press conference emphasized a dovish outlook, reinforcing the Fed's inclination towards maintaining easing bias. Despite unsettling inflation data, Powell highlighted various indicators suggesting that policy remains restrictive. His emphasis on normalizing job market metrics, declining labour market confidence, and stable but unaccelerated growth underscored the Fed's cautious approach.

Of note was Powell's dismissal of immediate rate hikes, outlining scenarios where rate cuts could be warranted instead. This includes persistent inflation coupled with a strong labour market or unexpected weaknesses in employment data. Powell's articulation provided clarity on the Fed's reluctance to entertain rate hikes in the near term.

Looking ahead, while Powell raised the bar for rate hikes, the Fed remains vigilant and data dependent. The timing of the first rate cut, tentatively projected for December, hinges on the trajectory of inflation towards the 2% target sustainably. Despite a projected improvement in core PCE inflation for Q2, it's unlikely to prompt rate cuts in the immediate future, indicating a prolonged pause in policy adjustments leading up to the presidential election.

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(I'd like to note here that while only a small percentage of market participants are expecting a cut in September of this year, I barely believe it will happen. Hence, my projection for December. The market still believes in two rate cuts this year, which I find quite impossible and interesting, given the higher numbers on non-manufacturing prices bringing the inflation up.)

The Fed's announcement of a tapered balance sheet runoff, set to commence in June, signals a proactive stance towards monetary policy adjustments. While the adjustment slightly exceeded expectations, particularly in UST SOMA runoff caps, it aligns with the Fed's broader strategy amid evolving economic dynamics. The Fed's readiness to reinvest MBS proceeds into USTs under specific conditions reflects a nuanced approach to balance sheet management.

Market implications of the Fed's stance suggest a firm cap on short-end yields, with volatility likely dampened, especially in shorter-term expiries. However, underlying softness in labour market metrics remains a concern, potentially prompting market reactions and adjustments to the timeline for rate cuts.

In conclusion, the Fed's commitment to maintaining accommodative policy amidst inflationary pressures underscores a balanced approach towards achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. While uncertainties persist, the Fed's proactive measures and data-driven approach aim to navigate the evolving economic landscape with resilience and prudence.

Insights Inspired by BNP (FED): Credit to Their Analysis for Shaping Some Aspects of This Text

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