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The Bank of Japan’s upcoming monetary policy meeting, set for 16–17 June, is attracting significant attention from global investors, with many anticipating that the central bank’s decisions could prompt notable shifts in both Japanese equities and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and ex-CEO of BitMEX and , has openly speculated that the BOJ may soon revert to quantitative easing (QE), a move that would inject liquidity into the economy and potentially boost risk assets. “If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting, risk assets are going to fly,” Hayes posted on X on 10 June.
Quantitative easing, or QE, involves central bank bond purchases designed to keep interest rates low and stimulate economic activity. A return to this policy could provide a tailwind for both crypto and equity markets, which are closely monitoring Japan’s policy stance amid heightened global volatility.
According to a Bloomberg report, the central bank is expected to slow the pace of its quantitative tightening (QT). Since last summer, the BOJ has been reducing its government bond purchases by ¥400 billion ($2.8 billion) per quarter. However, that pace may soon be halved. “The pace of reduction is likely to be eased to around ¥200 billion per quarter,” said Eiji Maeda, former BOJ executive director and current president of Chibagin Research Institute. “They won’t keep going with ¥400 billion.”
Governor Kazuo Ueda and his board are also set to review the existing bond-buying programme through 2026 and beyond. Maeda added that once monthly bond purchases reach around ¥2 trillion by early 2027, further reductions will likely pause. Although the BOJ is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% next week, the broader market focus is now on how far and how fast it will scale back its bond purchases.
Japan’s inflation has exceeded the 2% target for three consecutive years, the highest among G7 nations, fuelling expectations that a shift toward more easing could still be considered. However, uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and a recent GDP contraction complicate the timing of further rate hikes. “The BOJ must be careful,” Maeda warned. “They shouldn’t rush for normalization when these thick, dark clouds are hanging over the economy.”
Bitcoin has previously responded to Japan’s tightening measures. On 22 May, just two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit a record 3.185%, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $112,000. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $109,152, maintaining bullish momentum and strong technical support above $75,000.
André Dragosch, Director of Research Bitwise Europe
André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe commented:
“If yields keep rising, Bitcoin could head toward $200,000.” He added that Bitcoin, lacking a central authority, is seen as a hedge against government default risk. Dragosch also noted that while short-term volatility persists, the structural trend for Bitcoin is increasingly robust, with more of the market viewing it as a legitimate asset class alongside gold.
At the policy level, a new wave of stablecoin legislation is being considered, which could provide institutional investors with the regulatory clarity they have been seeking. Jake Ostrovskis, trader at Wintermute remarked, “This building momentum is a key force behind Bitcoin’s recent price action.”
Market participants are expected to scrutinize the language in the BOJ’s statement, looking for phrases such as “flexible approach” or indications that the bank could act again if needed. Any adjustment in the BOJ’s tolerance for longer-term yield movements could also be interpreted as a form of easing. For traders in Tokyo, New York, and beyond, these nuances will be closely watched, as a surprise shift back to easing could inject fresh yen into global markets and potentially propel Bitcoin and other risk assets higher. However, if the BOJ only moderates the pace of tightening, any boost may be modest.
Kazuo Ueda, BOJ Governor
Kazuo Ueda, BOJ Governor, recently stated,
“If trade discussions between nations progress and uncertainties regarding trade policies lessen, foreign economies will likely return to a moderate growth trajectory. This, in turn, will boost Japan’s economic expansion.”
Takumi Tsunoda, economist at Shinkin Bank Research, added,
“If trade discussions between the United States and other nations advance, global economic activities are likely to improve. The timeline for interest rate hikes now appears more likely to be pushed back compared to earlier forecasts, yet the BOJ is still expected to enact an additional rate increase in the first quarter of 2026.”
With the BOJ holding nearly half of all outstanding Japanese government bonds and recent poor auction results for super-long bonds, the Ministry of Finance is under pressure to reduce issuance, particularly for 30-year and 40-year maturities.
All eyes now turn to the BOJ’s meeting next week, as its decisions are expected to resonate far beyond Japan’s borders.
