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The first week of June is going to stall, then become volatile with U.S. economic announcements stacked throughout the week.
Though there is a consensus of 98.7% chance for a rate hold in June, keep a close eye on the Fedwatch Tool as Powell speaks, unemployment claims, and May NFP data get released.
This Week’s Market Movers:
1. Powell Speaks (June 2, Mon)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks that could hint at the central bank’s rate outlook. Traders will watch closely for any shift in tone on inflation, labour markets, or timing of potential rate cuts.
2. Unemployment Claims (June 5, Thurs)
Weekly unemployment claims offer a real-time snapshot of labour market softness. A surprise spike could fuel rate cut bets; a dip could reinforce Fed caution.
3. Non-Farm Payrolls (June 6, Fri)
The big one. May’s NFP report, unemployment rate, and wage growth data will heavily influence market direction. Weak numbers could increase pressure on the Fed to act sooner, while strong data may delay cuts.
S&P 500 Analysis — A Push Higher to $6,000 or Retracement to Lower Levels
With these market movers in the chamber, S&P 500 could stall until the news provides a catalyst for movement. Traders will be watching Powell’s tone in the coming speech; with many believing that the Federal Reserve will maintain a rate cut in June.
However, any signs of dovishness will allow the markets to have breathing room; despite the on-and-off pattern of U.S. tariffs.
Looking at the daily chart’s volume profile (VP), we can notice a few things:
| 1️⃣ The SP 500 reclaimed its value area low (VAL) from its leg up starting from November 2024 to March 2025. |
| 2️⃣ The gap formed last month, despite having a small wick which technically closes it, is not closed. This is because the VP shows no volume being transacted. So there is a chance we return to the gap – which if broken signals a double top bearish reversal. |
| 3️⃣ The best level for a retrace is ~ $5,432 to $5,490 — a high volume node that aligns with the anchored vWAP from November ‘24. |
| 4️⃣ A break below the VAL at approx. $5,114.98 could signal a deeper correction towards the 78.6% Fibonacci at $4,560.08. |
| 5️⃣ A push up could be met with resistance with the High Volume Node (HVN) at $6,015 to $6,110. Further up is the value area high (VAH), which is also the All-Time-High at $6,147.43. |
Either way, caution is advised as the markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode and is largely reactive to news.
You may also be interested in:
Key US & ECB Decisions, ISM Reports, and EUR/GBP Breakout Watch
DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. Trading comes with substantial risk, leading to possible loss of your capital. Traders are advised to do their own due diligence before investing.
