just now
- Nasdaq 100 rallies to all-time highs, fueled by AI optimism and rising Fed rate cut bets.
- Markets now price in 2–3 cuts starting September, boosting liquidity and tech valuations.
- 22,600 is the key breakout zone, while downside risks grow ahead of NFP and Fed surprises.
Nasdaq Pumps to New Highs
The Nasdaq 100 is powering to fresh all-time highs, driven by AI-fueled optimism and a macro environment increasingly priced for Federal Reserve rate cuts. With dovish sentiment surging and liquidity expectations rising, tech is thriving—but the rally could be tested if economic surprises or Fed pushback arise.
Macro & Fundamental Drivers: All Eyes on the Fed
Rate Policy Decision Forecast
September
October
December
- Rate cut bets drive the rally: Markets are now pricing in two to three Fed rate cuts starting September(72.8%), October(55.8%), and, potentially, December(44.5%), with Fed Funds futures showing a 72%+(continues to develop) chance of easing this quarter. For rate-sensitive tech stocks, this is fuel—lower rates reduce discount rates, boosting the present value of future earnings and making high-growth Nasdaq names more attractive.
- Liquidity boost supports tech valuations: The Nasdaq thrives in low-rate environments. As yields fall and real rates soften, big tech stocks—especially those with long-duration growth profiles—are seeing renewed institutional inflows.
- AI momentum still in play: With Nvidia, Microsoft, and AMD continuing to surprise to the upside, the AI theme remains the core narrative keeping investor appetite strong.
- Geopolitical calm adds to tailwinds: A quieter macro backdrop, fewer escalations in the Middle East and easing U.S.–China tensions, has helped stabilize risk appetite, benefiting Nasdaq and broader equities.
Technical Outlook: Bulls in Control but Watch the Breadth
Bullish Scenario
Previously, on market wraps -
- as outlined, Nasdaq 100 is leaning more towards to the upside following the impending Fed rate cuts and easing. Nasdaq bounced off nicely at the 4-Hour FVG resting between 22,457.1-22,376.5 levels.
Since yesterday, Nasdaq has experienced a big blow to the downside. Though on a downside move, reversal is yet to show as long as:
- Nasdaq stays above the equilibrium level of the range
- It breaks and gets sustained above the 22,600 level
- Nasdaq does not close below 22,500 level
Bearish Scenario
Downside risk is still on the table, especially with the incoming non-farm payroll data to be released this Thursday.
A strong jobs data could cause a renewed pullback on Nasdaq. Risks for downside could increase if:
- Nasdaq does not get any bullish follow-through above 22,600 level
- 22,500 level gets visited again
- Hawkish surprise
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