Nasdaq and S&P 500 Break Record Highs: What’s Next for the Top US Indices?
ACY Securities - Jasper Osita
- Middle East ceasefire talks and plunging oil prices ease inflation fears, strengthening the Fed's dovish outlook.
- Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) breaks into all-time highs above 22,234.1 as tech momentum and rate cut bets fuel risk-on appetite.
- S&P 500 (SP500) eyes the 6,150 level while holding key FVG support, mirroring Nasdaq's bullish structure.
The U.S. stock market is soaring to new highs with Nasdaq 100 leading to pack in an All-Time High level followed by S&P 500 & Dow Jones, fueled by a wave of geopolitical tensions, oil prices plunge, and investors ramp up bets on upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the S&P 500 testing the 6,600 level and the Nasdaq 100 printing a new All-Time High risk appetite has returned in full force-led by surging tech giants, improved earnings sentiment, and a broad-based rally across key sectors.
Key Drivers Behind the Rally in U.S. Indices
1. Middle East Ceasefire Uncertainty, Sends Oil Lower
A surprise ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced global risk sentiment, sent oil prices plunging more than -12% from its high at $77.50 level, and pulled inflation expectations lower-boosting equity confidence.
But this ceasefire negotiations is still on the table as Israel & Iran has not yet followed-through with the prior resolution.
Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P surged as oil-driven inflation fears faded.
2. Fed Rate Cut Bets
Dovish signals from Fed officials and falling oil prices have markets now pricing in a potential rate cut by September.
Tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed as lower yields boosted growth stocks.
3. Strong Earnings & Tech Momentum
Mega-cap tech names (NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft) and upbeat earnings (Uber, Carnival, Coinbase) continue to drive market strength.
All major indices gained, led by the Nasdaq’s breakout.
Technical Outlook
With the ease in oil (WTI) supply risks and dovish Fed due to disinflationary numbers, Nasdaq has now created a new All-Time High at 22,234.1 level.
Nasdaq Bullish Scenario
Since Nasdaq is now on All-Time High Levels, we are seeing strength. With risk-on sentiment has managed to stay, we are looking for Nasdaq to create new highs above the ATH level.
- Break above the ATH Level with sustained moved piercing through the 22,250 level
- Retest of the 4-Hour FVG resting between 22119.6-22181.7
As long as we see follow-through, strength on Nasdaq is still in-tact.
Nasdaq Bearish Scenario
We can’t also disregard the fact that the ATH level could pose risks for reversal since we are already at a very premium level. As long as we get a confirmation of weakness and shift in market structure by creating lower highs and lower lows, a bearish sequence, we could see strength to dissipate and Nasdaq pulling back below the 4-Hour FVG.
- Failed sustained move to the upside
- Invalidation of the 4-Hour FVG by closing below
- Bearish sequence in-effect
S&P500 Bullish Scenario
Same case that we could anticipate with S&P 500. Since Nasdaq and S&P 500 are correlated, we’d like to look for the same trajectory on S&P.
If we are looking for an upside continuation, we like the 4-Hour FVG to hold the line.
- FVG between 6079.8-6092.1 remains intact
- Bullish sequence reaching the ATH level
- Does not break below 6060 level.
S&P500 Bearish Scenario
With ATH looming around the corner, we cannot disregard a bearish scenario. If S&P fails to break strong with a strong momentum candle followed by bullish candles, this could pose risk for S&P to reach the All-Time High levels. Either we see a reversal or just a pause for a breather before S&P bounces back to the upside.
- Invalidation of 6079.8-6092.1
- Break below 6060 level
- Bearish Sequence
Check Out My Contents:
Strategies That You Can Use:
How To Trade & Scalp Indices at the Open Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
How to Trade Breakouts Effectively in Day Trading with Smart Money Concepts
Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Day Trading Gold (XAU/USD) with Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
The Power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis in Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Forex Trading Strategy for Beginners
The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Market Trends and Price Action
Mastering Candlestick Pattern Analysis with the SMC Strategy for Day Trading
Mastering Risk Management: Stop Loss, Take Profit, and Position Sizing
How To Trade News:
Why Smart Money Concepts Work in News-Driven Markets - CPI, NFP, and More
How to Trade NFP Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)-A Proven Strategy for Forex Traders
How to Trade CPI Like Smart Money - A Step-by-Step Guide Using SMC
Learn How to Trade US Indices:
How to Start Trading Indices and Get into the Stock Market with Low Capital (2025 Guide)
Best Indices to Trade for Day Traders | NASDAQ, S&P 500, DAX + Best Times to Trade Them
How To Trade & Scalp Indices at the Open Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
NAS100 - How to Trade the Nasdaq Like a Pro (Smart Money Edition)
How to Trade CPI Like Smart Money - A Step-by-Step Guide Using SMC
Why Smart Money Concepts Work in News-Driven Markets - CPI, NFP, and More
How to Start Trading Gold:
How to Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) Using Smart Money Concepts: A Simple Guide for Traders
Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Day Trading Gold (XAU/USD) with Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
The Ultimate Guide to Backtesting and Trading Gold (XAU/USD) Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Why Gold Remains the Ultimate Security in a Shifting World
How to Start Day Trading:
5 Steps to Start Day Trading: A Strategic Guide for Beginners
8 Steps How to Start Forex Day Trading in 2025: A Beginner’s Step-by-Step Guide
3 Steps to Build a Trading Routine for Consistency and Discipline - Day Trading Edition
Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil:
How to Identify Risk-On and Risk-Off Market Sentiment: A Complete Trader’s Guide
How to Trade Risk-On and Risk-Off Sentiment - With Technical Confirmation
The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Market Trends and Price Action
Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money?
Mastering the Market with Smart Money Concepts: 5 Strategic Approaches
Mastering Candlestick Pattern Analysis with the SMC Strategy for Day Trading
Understanding Liquidity Sweep: How Smart Money Trades Liquidity Zones in Forex, Gold, US Indices
The SMC Playbook Series Part 4: How to Confirm Trend Reversal & Direction using SMC
The SMC Playbook Series Part 5: The Power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis in Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Fair Value Gaps Explained: How Smart Money Leaves Footprints in the Market
Trading Psychology and Continuous Improvement Contents:
The Mental Game of Execution - Debunking the Common Trading Psychology
5 Steps to Backtest a Trading Strategy with AI: A Step-by-Step Guide
Managing Trading Losses: Why You Can Be Wrong and Still Win Big in Trading
The Hidden Threat in Trading: How Performance Anxiety Sabotages Your Edge
Why You Fail in Trading: You Don’t Have Enough Capital to Survive
Why 90% of Retail Traders Fail Even with Profitable Trading Strategies
Follow me for more daily market insights!
Jasper Osita - LinkedIn - FXStreet - YouTube
This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
LiquidityFinder
LiquidityFinder was created to take the friction out of the process of sourcing Business to Business (B2B) liquidity; to become the central reference point for liquidity in OTC electronic markets, and the means to access them. Our mission is to provide streamlined modern solutions and share valuable insight and knowledge that benefit our users.
If you would like to contribute to our website or wish to contact us, please click here or you can email us directly at press@liquidityfinder.com.