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Executive Summary
- *Trend Bias: Bullish continuation within a developing third wave.
- *Immediate Target: 22,208 based on 1.618 extension of wave (i).
- *Key Level: 20,245 must hold to preserve the bullish structure.
Current Elliott Wave Analysis
The 4-hour Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart reveals a developing Elliott wave impulsive pattern, currently progressing within wave (iii) of a larger impulse. After completing wave (ii) near 19,012 – which likely marked the end of a sharp ABC correction – the market launched into wave (iii) with strong momentum.
Within this developing wave (iii), the market appears to be completing or has just completed minor wave iii, with prices currently consolidating just below the Fibonacci extension cluster of 1.618 extensions of wave i, which projects to the 21,414–21,558 zone. This aligns well with typical third-wave behavior – often the strongest and longest within a motive sequence.
A minor wave iv pullback may soon emerge, with ideal retracement targets in the 20,732 - 21,035 range, a typical 23.6% - 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii. Importantly, wave iv should remain above the 20,245 level (the top of wave i to maintain the impulsive integrity of the move.
Momentum-wise, RSI is elevated at 78.76, indicating overbought conditions but consistent with wave iii behavior. Short-term consolidation is likely before the market attempts wave v of (iii), which could reach as high as 22,208, the 1.618 extension of the entire wave (i) measured from the wave (ii) low.
Bottom Line
The Nasdaq 100 remains in a strong impulsive uptrend, working through wave (iii) with bullish potential toward 22,200+. Any correction should ideally hold above 20,245, with dip-buying opportunities likely emerging near 20,800. The bullish wave count remains intact unless key support is breached. Traders should prepare for a wave iv pause before a potential final push in wave v of (iii).
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https://alchemymarkets.com/education/market-insights/elliott-wave/sp500-climbing-the-3rd-wave/
