Oil Prices Surge After Israel Strike on Iran: What’s Next for Crude Prices?

• Oil prices jumped over 10% after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, raising fears of disruption through the key oil route, the Strait of Hormuz.
• Price action had already turned bullish, trading above equilibrium and building momentum, the geopolitical news acted as the breakout catalyst.
• If $72-$75 holds as support, the next upside target is $80; a break below $70 could trigger a deeper correction toward $68 or lower.

A War Shock Sends Oil Markets Into Overdrive

Oil prices erupted higher today after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, a move that has instantly shaken global markets. Israel confirmed a series of precision airstrikes against high-value targets in Iran, including suspected nuclear facilities and IRGC compounds. Initial reports claim key Iranian scientists and commanders were killed.

Within hours, WTI crude (USOIL) blasted through multiple resistance levels, climbing over more than 10% intraday, its biggest single-day jump in years.

Oil Breaks Free From Consolidation

Daily Chart

Prior to this day’s Oil surge, this might be a key insight you may have missed:

Oil was already showing signs of a bullish breakout before the headlines hit.

Even before the attack, price had climbed above its equilibrium range, forming higher lows and consolidating near resistance. Momentum was building. All the market needed was a catalyst. And the Israel-Iran conflict provided exactly that.

Why Oil Prices Are Spiking

Here’s what’s driving the surge in crude oil right now:

• Israel-Iran Conflict: Fresh military action puts key oil routes especially the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route,  at potential risk.
• Supply Shock Fear: The Middle East supplies about 30% of global oil. Any retaliation or escalation could choke critical supply lines.
• Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel: A softer U.S. dollar (DXY) following recent CPI data made commodities like oil even more attractive.
• Anticipated Breakout: Oil had been consolidating above equilibrium, showing steady strength and rising structure. Markets were already pricing in an upside move, the news simply accelerated it.

Breakouts don’t happen in a vacuum. This one had been telegraphed by price structure. The war news lit the match. Key Oil Price Levels

Bullish Case for Oil

Price just broke out of a tight consolidation, a sustained move above the $72-$75 and the consolidation level could push oil to new levels.

• Retracement into the $70-73 FVG zone 
  • Look for a liquidity sweep or bullish rejection wick
  • Confirmation via MSS or bullish engulfing candle on lower timeframes (M15-H1)
• Break above $75.00 with strong volume confirms continued momentum
• Upside target: $80.00, the next psychological and technical resistance zone

Bearish Case for Oil

If price fails to hold above $70-$72, this move could be a classic news-driven spike with no sustained follow-through.

• Lower high formation under $75 
  • Watch for bearish divergence or rejection wicks near $75-76
• Downside Risk 
  • $68.00 - previous consolidation area
  • $66-65 - breakdown of original consolidation

This wasn’t just a random spike. This was the culmination of technical pressure and a waiting game for a trigger.

Markets often move before the news, structure was screaming bullish. The Israel-Iran conflict simply confirmed what price had been hinting at all week.

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