U.S. Dollar Retreats as Yields Surge and Trade Policy Reignites Global Risk Aversion

The U.S. dollar has come under renewed selling pressure as global markets digest the implications of an aggressive repricing in U.S. Treasuries and the reintroduction of broad-based protectionist trade measures. This convergence of higher yields, softer equities, and a weaker dollar underscores an important shift in global investor positioning and sentiment. The backdrop is increasingly defined by concerns over U.S. macro stability and the geopolitical consequences of escalating tariff policy.

In recent days, U.S. long-end Treasury yields have surged by approximately 60 basis points, pushing the 30-year above the 5.00% threshold a level not seen since early 2022. The sharp move has triggered renewed volatility across asset classes and raised questions about the perceived safe-haven status of both Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. The dollar index has now retreated below the 102.00 mark, with the decline most pronounced against traditional defensive currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

This shift follows the formal implementation of “reciprocal tariffs” announced by former President Trump. Under this framework, the United States has introduced a universal 10% baseline tariff on all imports, supplemented by significantly higher levies on countries deemed “worst offenders.” Tariffs on Chinese imports now exceed 114%, with Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and India also subject to punitive trade restrictions ranging from 26% to 46%. While Latin American economies have faced lighter tariffs, the policy direction has nonetheless unsettled global trade expectations and triggered widespread repricing in FX markets.

China’s Currency Under Scrutiny Amid Rising Trade Pressures

Despite broad-based dollar weakness, the Chinese renminbi continues to depreciate. The offshore yuan (USD/CNH) briefly touched a new local high of 7.4273 before retracing, while the PBoC maintained the onshore fix at 7.2066 for the fifth consecutive session. This pattern reflects increasing expectations that Chinese authorities may permit or pursue a more flexible exchange rate regime to offset the drag from weaker exports.

The renminbi’s decline has generated negative spillover across regional FX, particularly in Asia and parts of Latin America. Both the Brazilian real and Chilean peso declined more than 1% against the dollar in the last 24 hours, despite facing relatively mild tariff exposure. Speculation that China may accelerate domestic stimulus to stabilise growth is building, but no formal announcements have yet materialised.

Emerging Market FX Reverses as Global Trade Risks Resurface

Emerging market currencies, which had begun to stabilise in early Q2, are now sharply reversing. The renewed global trade tensions, coupled with risk aversion and weaker commodity demand, have undermined a broad swath of EM FX. Among the worst performers this month are the South African rand (-7.2% vs USD), Colombian peso (-5.5%), Brazilian real (-5.1%), and Chilean peso (-4.9%).

Interestingly, while Asian markets are most directly exposed to elevated tariff rates, commodity linked currencies are experiencing significant pressure due to concerns over softer global demand. The combination of declining commodity prices and geopolitical instability is exacerbating losses in EM FX, regardless of the nominal tariff levels imposed.

In South Africa, the rand is being further undermined by domestic political risk after the national budget was passed without opposition support, casting doubts on the durability of the coalition government. In Central and Eastern Europe, the Polish zloty weakened notably following a dovish surprise from NBP Governor Glapiński, who hinted at the possibility of an early rate cut in May potentially as much as 50bps. EUR/PLN is now trading back above the 4.30 level, underperforming regional peers such as the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint.

Reassessing the Dollar’s Role in a Fragmenting Global Order

The current episode marks a rare but instructive deviation from the historical inverse correlation between U.S. yields and the dollar. Higher Treasury yields are failing to support the USD, indicating that global investors are reassessing both the quality of U.S. debt and the strategic positioning of the dollar within a multipolar economic environment.

The simultaneous drawdown across U.S. equities, bonds, and currency markets points to the reemergence of stagflation risk a scenario where inflationary pressures driven by tariffs collide with weakening growth prospects. The upcoming FOMC minutes and scheduled commentary from Federal Reserve officials may provide insight into whether the central bank sees the inflationary impact of trade policy as transient or structural.

In parallel, reports out of Beijing suggest that Chinese policymakers are considering accelerating fiscal stimulus to support consumption and counterbalance the slowdown in trade. Any formal commitment to policy easing could provide temporary relief to risk sentiment but would likely also reinforce speculative pressures on the renminbi.

The return of tariff-centric trade policy and the market’s reaction to it signal a structural shift in global macro conditions. The weakening of the U.S. dollar in the face of rising yields reflects growing investor scepticism toward the U.S.’s fiscal and geopolitical positioning. In the near term, foreign exchange volatility is expected to remain elevated, with defensive positioning in the Japanese yen and Swiss franc likely to persist.

The dollar is in transition. While still a global reserve asset, its role as a safe haven is being actively reassessed. At the same time, asymmetric trade exposure, political risks, and commodity volatility are driving a renewed divergence across EM FX. The intersection of policy, geopolitics, and macroeconomics will remain the key determinant of capital flows in the months ahead.

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