EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls Hold Control Above 1.1728 as Price Consolidates

Categories:

ProviderNews

Platforms

Tags:

ACY Securities - Japer Osita

Dec 22, 2025

EUR/USD remains structurally bullish, holding above the 1.1728 multi-week high despite entering a consolidation phase.

Dollar softness and narrowing Fed-ECB policy divergence continue to provide a supportive backdrop for euro strength.

Technical bias favors continuation, with strength expected to return if price reclaims and holds above equilibrium (range midpoint).

EUR/USD Market Narrative – Consolidation, Not Reversal

EUR/USD is currently transitioning from impulsive expansion into balance, consolidating above the 1.1728 multi-week high. This behavior reflects acceptance at higher prices, rather than exhaustion or trend failure.

After reclaiming a key structural level, the market has paused to allow two-sided trade — a natural and healthy process in trending environments. Importantly, price has not collapsed back below prior resistance, nor has it shown aggressive distribution. Instead, EUR/USD is oscillating within a defined range, signaling re-pricing rather than rejection.

From a macro perspective, this consolidation is occurring against a backdrop of persistent USD softness. The Federal Reserve’s shift toward rate cuts and a more data-dependent stance has reduced the dollar’s yield advantage, while expectations for aggressive ECB easing remain restrained. This narrowing policy divergence continues to favor EUR/USD on a medium-term basis.

As a result, the current price action should be viewed as digesting gains, not undoing them.

How the Previous EUR/USD Forecast Materialized

The prior EUR/USD forecast did not call for immediate continuation higher. Instead, it emphasized that acceptance above the multi-week high would be more important than chasing momentum.

Specifically, the expectation was for:

A pullback or consolidation above 1.1728
Shallow retracements rather than structural failure
A pause that allows the market to rebalance before the next move

That scenario has materialized cleanly.

Following the breakout, EUR/USD pulled back into the highlighted re-pricing zone, held above the multi-week high, and formed higher lows rather than accelerating lower. Sellers failed to force acceptance back below prior resistance, while buyers consistently absorbed downside pressure.

This confirms that the breakout was structural, not false. The current consolidation reflects controlled digestion, aligning with the original expectation that the market would pause before determining its next expansion leg.

In short, the market followed process, not prediction — rewarding patience and structural alignment rather than aggressive positioning.

Technical Structure – Balance Around Key Levels

EUR/USD is now trading inside a defined range, with both buyers and sellers actively participating. In this environment, the most important reference is no longer the highs or lows — but equilibrium, or the middle of the range.

Equilibrium represents fair value. How price behaves around this level reveals intent.

Bullish Scenario – Strength Returns Above Equilibrium

The bullish scenario re-engages if EUR/USD breaks above the equilibrium level and holds above it.

Acceptance above the midpoint of the range signals that buyers are willing to transact at premium prices, not just defend the lows. In strong trends, equilibrium often acts as a launchpad, not resistance.

If price reclaims equilibrium and stays above it:

Higher-timeframe bullish structure remains intact
Liquidity below has already been absorbed
Momentum can re-expand without revisiting range lows
USD weakness and narrowing rate differentials reinforce upside pressure

Bullish expectation:

Rotation toward the range high, followed by a potential continuation toward new multi-week highs if momentum builds.

Bearish Scenario – Deeper Rebalancing Below Equilibrium

The bearish scenario develops if EUR/USD fails to reclaim equilibrium and consistently trades below the midpoint of the range.

In this case, equilibrium acts as resistance, suggesting sellers control fair value. This would likely lead to:

Further rotation toward the lower boundary of the range
A deeper corrective move into prior demand
Short-term bearish momentum

However, it is critical to distinguish correction from reversal. Even a sustained move below equilibrium would still be considered rebalancing, unless broader daily structure breaks decisively.

Final Thoughts

EUR/USD is not weakening — it is pausing with structure intact.

The market is currently balanced, and equilibrium is the line that separates continuation from deeper correction. Acceptance above it favors renewed strength, while failure keeps price rotational.

Until that decision is made, patience remains the edge.

Start Trading Live!

Trade forex, indices, gold, and more
Access ACY, MT4, MT5, & Copy Trading Platforms

It’s time to go from theory to execution!

Create an Account. Start Your Live Trading Now!

Check Out My Contents:

Beginners Path

Strategies That You Can Use

Looking for step-by-step approaches you can plug straight into the charts? Start here:

Indicators / Tools for Trading

Sharpen your edge with proven tools and frameworks:

How To Trade News

News moves markets fast. Learn how to keep pace with SMC-based playbooks:

Learn How to Trade US Indices

From NASDAQ opens to DAX trends, here’s how to approach indices like a pro:

How to Start Trading Gold

Gold remains one of the most traded assets - here’s how to approach it with confidence:

How to Trade Japanese Candlesticks

Candlesticks are the building blocks of price action. Master the most powerful ones:

How to Start Day Trading

Ready to go intraday? Here’s how to build consistency step by step:

Swing Trading 101

Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil

Markets swing between calm and chaos. Learn to read risk-on vs risk-off like a pro:

Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money?

Step inside the playbook of institutional traders with SMC concepts explained:

Master the World’s Most Popular Forex Pairs

Forex pairs aren’t created equal - some are stable, some are volatile, others tied to commodities or sessions.

Metals Trading

Stop Hunting 101

If you’ve ever been stopped out right before the market reverses - this is why:

Trading Psychology

Mindset is the deciding factor between growth and blowups. Explore these essentials:

Market Drivers

Risk Management

The real edge in trading isn’t strategy - it’s how you protect your capital:

Suggested Learning Path

If you’re not sure where to start, follow this roadmap:

1. Start with Trading Psychology → Build the mindset first.
2. Move into Risk Management → Learn how to protect capital.
3. Explore Strategies & Tools → Candlesticks, Fibonacci, MAs, Indicators.
4. Apply to Assets → Gold, Indices, Forex sessions.
5. Advance to Smart Money Concepts (SMC) → Learn how institutions trade.
6. Specialize → Stop Hunts, News Trading, Turmoil Navigation.

This way, you’ll grow from foundation → application → mastery, instead of jumping around randomly.

Follow me for more daily market insights!

Jasper Osita - LinkedIn - FXStreet - YouTube

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Comments

Sort By:

Latest

Loading Comments

Please Sign In or Create Your FREE Account to Comment.

LiquidityFinder

LiquidityFinder was created to take the friction out of the process of sourcing Business to Business (B2B) liquidity; to become the central reference point for liquidity in OTC electronic markets, and the means to access them. Our mission is to provide streamlined modern solutions and share valuable insight and knowledge that benefit our users.

If you would like to contribute to our website or wish to contact us, please click here or you can email us directly at press@liquidityfinder.com.