just now
Bitget Wallet, a prominent everyday finance application, has announced the publication of a new research report on prediction markets. The report, produced in partnership with Polymarket, analyses onchain data from Dune Analytics to examine how users are engaging with real-world events through these markets. It highlights a notable shift from isolated trades to more sustained participation across various categories.
According to the findings, trading on Polymarket reached a substantial $25.7 billion in volume during March. More significantly, the report points to a change in user behaviour. Based on activity from 1.29 million wallets in Q1 2026, users are demonstrating increased frequency of engagement, trading across a wider array of categories, and expanding their focus beyond crypto into sports, politics, and other real-world markets. The data indicates that most users remain retail, with 82.8% conducting trades under $10,000.
The growth of the market appears to be driven by repeated use rather than larger individual trades. Among the users studied, active days rose from 2.5 to 9.9 as participation deepened, while category participation expanded from 1.45 to 2.34. This pattern suggests that users are not merely trading more, but are engaging more consistently across a broader spectrum of use cases.
Sports has emerged as the leading category, propelled by the consistent schedule of global events. With $10.1 billion in Q1 volume, it now accounts for the largest share of activity, as recurring matches and tournaments generate frequent opportunities for engagement and foster repeat participation.
Crypto continues to serve as the primary entry point for new users, representing nearly 40% of initial activity. Familiar price movements and continuous markets make it a natural starting point. However, as users become more active, their participation diversifies towards a broader set of real-world categories.
Political markets have also established themselves as a major pillar, recording $5 billion in Q1 volume, with $2.41 billion specifically tied to geopolitics. Unlike traditional election-driven cycles, activity is distributed across ongoing global developments, with traders responding to real-time news flow rather than isolated events.
Collectively, the data indicates a structural transformation in how prediction markets are utilised. What was once primarily driven by one-off events is evolving into a system of continuous interaction across categories, where users regularly return to engage with real-world outcomes. As participation becomes more consistent and integrated over time, prediction markets are moving beyond mere trading activity into a more expansive framework for interpreting uncertainty as it unfolds.
Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet commented:
Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions. What we're seeing is a behavioural shift: the market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades. For us, this is a signal that the future of prediction markets is embedded in everyday life, with wallets playing a central role in enabling access.
As participation becomes more frequent, the importance of access increases. The report highlights a growing emphasis on usability and discovery, as users navigate an expanding set of markets and information in real time. In this context, wallets are becoming crucial access points, positioned at the intersection of assets and execution.
With industry projections estimating $240 billion in annual volume by 2026 and a longer-term trajectory towards $1 trillion, prediction markets are transitioning beyond trading into a broader system for expressing and interpreting real-world uncertainty.
Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth & Partnerships at Polymarket commented:
As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself. We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement, where access and usability will be key to scaling participation globally.
This shift towards continuous engagement in prediction markets reflects a broader trend in financial services, where accessible, real-time data and robust infrastructure are paramount. For institutional players in institutional FX and digital assets, the ability to interpret and react to market uncertainty is crucial, echoing the demands placed on crypto prime brokerages and what are liquidity providers in ensuring efficient market operations. The increasing sophistication of retail participants, seen in their multi-category engagement, also highlights the need for advanced platforms and insights, much like those offered by a comprehensive crypto data hub. This evolution underscores the importance of understanding complex financial ecosystems, from the nuances of Prime Broker vs Prime of Prime services to the implications of changing market behaviour for all participants in institutional FX.
As prediction markets continue to evolve, explore LiquidityFinder Insight for the latest analysis on digital assets and institutional finance.
