AUD/JPY Price Action Forecast: Is AUD/JPY Setting Up for a Massive Sell?

Key takeaways:

1. AUD/JPY is shifting from a bullish to a bearish trend on the weekly chart.
2. The daily chart confirms a strong bearish structure below the 50 EMA.
3. A high-probability AUD/JPY sell setup is forming at the 113.168 - 112.973 resistance zone.
4. The downside profit target sits securely at 111.500.

What is the technical price action on AUD/JPY telling us?

Weekly chart

Weekly Chart Simple Price Action Analysis

On the weekly timeframe, AUD/JPY is showing a clear bearish bias after breaking key market structure, signaling a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend.

Here is what I notice on the weekly timeframe:

1. Shift of market structure from bearish to bullish trend
2. Double top pattern is formed
3. Massive bearish engulfing candlestick is formed
4. Price is potentially setting up for massive sells

Want to master how to identify market trends and candlestick confirmation?

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Daily chart

Daily Chart Simple Price Action Analysis

How AUD/JPY looks on daily chart using price action analysis?

On the daily chart, price still also clearly in a bearish structure, price has break thru to a strong support level.

Daily Chart Observations:

1. Daily is clearly pro bearish continuation
2. Broken thru a strong support level potentially now acting as a resistance level
3. Daily 50 EMA indicator is at the top of the price indicating the daily is clearly in a bearish trend and also could potentially act as a secondary resistance

Want to learn how to utilize 50 EMA indicator? Check out my blog:

1. Master Exponential Moving Average: How to Trade using EMA Indicator with Price Action Analysis?

How to trade pro-trend continuation on AUD/JPY?

When AUD/JPY is in a strong trending market, one of the highest-probability setups is the break-and-retest strategy. After price breaks a key support or resistance level, wait for a retest of that level and look for confirmation before entering in the direction of the trend. This approach helps traders align with momentum while avoiding chasing the breakout.

Want to learn more about the break and retest pattern setups? Check out these blogs:

1. Break and Retest: How to Capitalize on Repetitive Patterns in Trading
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Bullish scenario

Daily Chart Simple Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

Bullish momentum could occur in AUD/JPY if:

1. Break and retest daily resistance level at 113.168 - 112.973
2. Properly rejects daily 50 EMA indicator (potentially could act as secondary support)
3. Confirm bullish rejection after the break and retest of the weekly resistance zone

Trade idea:

1. Target price or take profit at 114.000
2. Stop-loss placed below potential support zone (once daily resistance is broken then it could now potentially act as a support level)

Note: This bullish trade idea on AUD/JPY is considered a low-probability setup since it did not align with the overall higher timeframe trend.

Bearish scenario

Daily Chart Simple Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

Bearish momentum could occur in AUD/JPY if:

1. Properly reject daily resistance level at 113.168 - 112.973
2. Properly rejects daily 50 EMA indicator
3. Confirm a bearish candle stick confirmation at daily resistance zone

Trade Idea:

1. Target Price or take profit at 111.500
2. Stop-loss placed above potential resistance zone

Note: This bearish trade idea on Gold AUD/JPY is considered a high-probability setup since it does align with the overall bearish trend of the market.

Final Take

Right now, AUD/JPY is still showing strong bearish momentum, so I'm personally focusing more on sell opportunities rather than trying to fight the trend. That doesn't mean the market can't move higher, but the higher-probability setups are the ones that align with the overall bearish structure.

As always, there's no need to rush into a trade. Let the market come to your level, wait for confirmation, and only execute when your setup is fully formed. Sometimes the best trade is the one you patiently wait for.

Now you already know the bullish and bearish setups for AUD/JPY this week,

Your next step is:

1. To know trader’s beginner steps before your trade
2. Mastering your psychology
3. Mastering the simple price action strategy
4. Mastering Repetitive Patterns in Trading
5. Trading live using this simple price action strategy

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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. June 9, 2026