EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Update: Buyers Defended 1.63930 Support level, Was the Bullish Trade Confirmed?

In the previous analysis, "EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Today: Will the 1.63930 Support Trigger the Next Bullish Move?", I explained that EUR/AUD remained in a strong bullish trend across both the weekly and daily timeframes. However, instead of buying immediately, the trading plan was simple:

Wait for price to confirm that buyers were still defending the 1.63930–1.63668 support zone.

That patience paid off.

EUR/AUD respected the support area exactly as anticipated, formed a bullish rejection, and resumed its upward move. Rather than predicting the market, the setup relied on confirmation, a principle that consistently helps traders avoid false signals and improve trade quality.

Key Takeaways:

1. EUR/AUD successfully defended the 1.63930–1.63668 support zone.
2. Bullish rejection confirmed buyers remained in control.
3. The break-and-retest setup played out as expected.
4. The 50 EMA continued acting as dynamic support.
5. Waiting for confirmation produced the higher-probability trade.

How Did the Previous EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Predict the Move?

The previous EUR/AUD forecast wasn't about predicting where price would go next.

Instead, it focused on identifying a high-probability price action setup supported by multiple technical confluences.

The analysis highlighted:

1. Strong bullish weekly market structure.
2. Price rejecting a major weekly support zone.
3. Bullish engulfing candlestick showing buying pressure.
4. Higher Low (HL) confirming buyers remained in control.
5. Daily breakout above consolidation.
6. 50 EMA acting as dynamic support.
7. A textbook break-and-retest setup.

When multiple technical factors align, traders gain an edge by waiting for confirmation rather than chasing price.

That is exactly what happened.

For the complete market breakdown, support and resistance levels, and the original trade plan, read:

1. EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Today: Will the 1.63930 Support Trigger the Next Bullish Move?

Forecast Recap: The Two Trading Scenarios

Every professional trading plan prepares for both bullish and bearish outcomes.

The objective isn't to predict the market.

The objective is to react only after price confirms one of the scenarios.

Before EUR/AUD continued higher, two possible scenarios were outlined based on market structure and price action.

Watch the previous live trading session to see how the EUR/AUD setup was identified before the move happened:

Jump to 34:15 –37:50 for a detailed EUR/AUD price action breakdown, including market structure, key resistance, trade confirmation, and the analysis behind the setup.

EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast: What Were the Two Key Scenarios?

1. Bullish Scenario (Higher-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Anticipated Bullish Setup

The preferred trading plan was to look for buying opportunities after price confirmed support.

Bullish confirmation checklist:

1. Price successfully retested the 1.63930–1.63668 support zone.
2. Bullish rejection candlestick formed at support.
3. The 50 EMA continued acting as dynamic support.
4. Buyers regained control following the retest.

Anticipated bullish trade idea:

Daily Chart Price Action analysis. Bullish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Target: 1.64870
2. Stop-loss: Below the support level.
3. Risk management: Use proper position sizing and follow your trading plan.

Why was the EUR/AUD bullish setup considered a higher-probability trade?

This setup aligned with both the weekly and daily bullish market structure while following a confirmed break-and-retest setup, making it the highest-probability trading opportunity.

Outcome:

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

Daily Price Action Analysis: Bullish Take-Profit Target Successfully Reached

1. ✅ Support successfully held.
2. ✅ Bullish rejection confirmed.
3. ✅ Break-and-retest validated.
4. ✅ Buyers regained control.
5. ✅ EUR/AUD continued toward the projected upside target.

2. Bearish Scenario (Lower-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Anticipated Bearish Setup

Although the primary trend remained bullish, sellers still had an opportunity if they could break key support.

Bearish confirmation checklist:

1. Price breaks and successfully retests below the 1.63310–1.62780 support zone.
2. Previous support turns into new resistance.
3. Strong bearish rejection candlestick confirms sellers are back in control.

Anticipated bearish trade idea:

Daily

Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Target: 1.62010
2. Stop-loss: Above the new resistance level.
3. Risk management: Use proper position sizing and follow your trading plan.

Why was the EUR/AUD bearish setup considered a lower-probability trade?

This setup went against the dominant bullish trend visible on both the weekly and daily timeframes, making it the lower-probability scenario.

Outcome:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis: Bearish Setup Invalidated

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis: Price Failed to Break Below Weekly Support

1. ❌ Support did not break.
2. ❌ No confirmed bearish retest formed.
3. ❌ Sellers failed to regain control.
4. ✅ The bullish scenario remained valid.

How Was This EUR/AUD Setup Successfully Executed?

Trade outcome: EUR/AUD respected the major support zone exactly as anticipated, allowing buyers to regain control and continue the prevailing uptrend.

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis: Bearish Setup Invalidated

The setup was based entirely on the confluence of:

1. ✅ Price action
2. ✅ Market structure
3. ✅ Support and resistance
4. ✅ Break-and-retest setup
5. ✅ Bullish rejection candlestick
6. ✅ 50 EMA trend confirmation
7. ✅ Proper risk management

By waiting for confirmation instead of predicting the move, traders were able to participate in a higher-probability setup that aligned with the dominant trend.

Final Take

This EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Update demonstrates how combining price action, market structure, support and resistance, break-and-retest confirmation, candlestick analysis, and the 50 EMA can help traders identify high-probability opportunities.

More importantly, it reinforces one of the most valuable lessons in trading:

Confirmation always comes before execution.

Rather than anticipating what the market might do, professional traders wait for technical confirmation before committing capital.

Always remember: No trading strategy guarantees every trade will be a winner. However, consistently following a disciplined trading plan, waiting for confirmation, and applying proper risk management gives traders the best opportunity for long-term consistency.

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FAQs

Was the EUR/AUD bullish forecast successful?

Yes. EUR/AUD held the 1.63930–1.63668 support zone and reached the projected bullish target after confirming buyer strength.

Why was the EUR/AUD bullish setup high probability?

It aligned with the weekly and daily uptrend, a break-and-retest setup, bullish price action, and the 50 EMA.

Why was the bearish EUR/AUD scenario invalidated?

Price failed to break below key weekly support, so sellers never confirmed control.

What is a break-and-retest strategy?

A break-and-retest strategy waits for price to confirm a breakout before entering a trade, helping reduce false signals.

Why should traders wait for confirmation?

Confirmation helps traders avoid emotional entries and improves the probability of successful trades.

How did the 50 EMA support the EUR/AUD trade?

The 50 EMA acted as dynamic support, confirming the bullish trend remained intact.

Does price action guarantee profitable trades?

No. Price action improves trade quality, but consistent risk management is essential because no strategy guarantees winning trades.

What is the main lesson from this EUR/AUD forecast?

Trade confirmation, not guesswork. Wait for the market to validate your setup before entering a trade.

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If you want to develop a professional trading mindset while learning how to identify high-probability price action setups across Gold, Forex, Crypto, Commodities and Indices, continue following our market analysis and educational guides.

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1. To know trader’s beginner steps before your trade
2. Mastering your psychology
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4. Mastering Repetitive Patterns in Trading
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6. A Complete Beginner's Guide: What are the Only Technical Trading System You Need to Trade Gold, Forex, Crypto, Commodities & Indices?

Mastering Popular Forex Pairs Using simple price action strategy

Ready to learn simple price action strategy? Here’s how to do it step by step:

1. USD/JPY Analysis Today: Simple Trades, Clear Moves, for Beginners Using Price Action
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17. USD/CAD Simple Price Action: Is 1.36500 the Key Bullish Floor?
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20. NZD/USD Forecast: Potential Consolidation Breakout on NZD/USD?
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30. GBP/AUD Price Action Forecast Today: Will the British Pound or Australian Dollar Come Out on Top?
31. EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Today: Will the 1.63930 Support Trigger the Next Bullish Move?
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1. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: Mastering Japanese Candlestick Confirmation + Pairing with Price Action Analysis
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Mastering the 50 EMA

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4. Trading Wick Outs: How to Handle Fake Outs and Market Losses?
5. Trading Psychology: The Truth About Trading Success
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10. Emotional Neutrality in Trading: The Secret Weapon of Consistent and Discipline Traders

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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. August 7, 2026.