The US economy lost 32’000 jobs in November — the fourth decline in six months. Small businesses bore the brunt, shedding 120,000 positions, outweighing gains in bigger firms. The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 3.50%, the probability of a December 25bp Fed cut jumped to 90% and the S&P 500 hovered near all-time highs.
Because, of course, job losses are just another reason to cheer the dovish Fed expectations. Japan, on the other hand, decided to show off. A 30-year government bond sale drew the strongest demand since 2019, with yields near 3.40%, sending the Nikkei up 2% — a polite reminder that bond flows still make markets dance. US futures are steady this morning, though, as investors now face the big question: is it finally time to move – again - beyond tech and US-centric bets?
