Market Quick Take - Oil rally revives inflation worry as CPI approaches - 11 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Macro: A four-day climb in crude revived inflation worry just as Trump hardened his terms with Tehran
2. Equities: US stocks edged lower, Europe held near records, while Asia was mixed as oil and inflation risks stayed in focus
3. Volatility: Equity vol stayed calm while the volatility bid moved into gold, silver and rates
4. Digital Assets: Crypto equities sold off before an after-hours data-centre lease reset the miner story
5. Commodities: Gold hits two-month high despite renewed oil strength as deal remains elusive
6. Fixed Income: Global bond yields jumped on the crude oil price surge Monday
7. Currencies: Sterling firmer on labour market data, USD sideways, JPY lower

Macro

1. Uncertainty over a US–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts, responding to Tehran’s reparations demands. The tougher stance lowers chances of a near-term agreement and keeps markets wary, as Iran ties any Hormuz deal with Oman to a broader accord with the US and Trump opts for economic pressure over new strikes.
2. China’s Communist Party leadership vowed more proactive macro policy, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds, continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and stronger efforts to boost still-weak domestic demand.
3. A lesser known UK labour market survey, the REC-KPMG & S&P Global monthly report issued late Sunday, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner to the positive side as the overall Permanent Placements index rose to exactly 50, the first time in a non-contracting level since late 2022.
4. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 1000 – US Jul. NFIB Small Business Optimism
2. 1215 – US ADP Weekly Employment Change for four weeks ending July 25
3. 1400 – US Jul. Existing Home Sales
4. 1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook
5. 1700 – US Treasury to auction 3-year notes

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

1. Monday (yesterday): Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile
2. Tuesday: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer
3. Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
4. Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,753.11 on Monday, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.3% as a 5.0% jump in oil revived inflation concerns ahead of Wednesday’s US consumer price report. Nvidia fell 2.9% despite unveiling partnerships with six major financial groups to mobilise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure, while Intel dropped 4.1% after announcing plans for a $15 billion share sale. Berkshire Hathaway gained 1.5% after stronger-than-expected results and renewed share buybacks. Markets now turn to inflation data for the next signal on Federal Reserve policy.
2. Europe: The Stoxx 600 finished effectively flat at a record 660.45 on Monday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to 6,535.62, the DAX was flat and the FTSE 100 fell 0.4%. Energy led with a 1.3% gain as oil prices jumped, while telecoms and other rate-sensitive areas lagged. Plus500 rose 2.1% after reporting higher first-half underlying profit, while Coca-Cola HBC fell 4.8% after BNP Paribas cut the bottler to neutral. Investors next watch euro-area labour data and Wednesday’s US inflation report for rate guidance.
3. Asia: Asian equities were mixed on Tuesday, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.2% in afternoon trade, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.6% and Shanghai’s Composite off 0.1%, while Japan was closed for Mountain Day. Korean chipmakers recovered from a weak open and helped lift Seoul, while higher oil prices kept inflation and geopolitical risks in focus across the region. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.5% after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 4.35%. Investors now look to Wednesday’s US inflation data, with energy prices adding another complication for central banks.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.46 | VIX FUTURES: 16.91 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (137.13) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Oil's four-day advance revived inflation concern, yet equity vol stayed subdued: VIX closed at 15.46 and VIX9D at 12.77, the cash curve in firm contango out to VIX1Y at 22.76. VVIX at 92.51 and SKEW at 137.13 both firmed, consistent with steady demand for tail protection.
2. The volatility bid sat outside equities. GVZ rose 8.8% to 27.90 and VXSLV 10.0% to 50.95 as gold cleared $4,400, while MOVE gained 4.8% to 75.46 and VXTLT 8.2%. SPX options imply 32 points, 0.41%, for today's expiry and 78 points, 1.00%, into Friday 14 August, with July CPI on Wednesday the primary catalyst.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,060 +0.21% | ETHEREUM ~1,879 +0.38% | IBIT 36.23 -1.55% | ETHA 14.14 -2.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

1. Crypto drifted while the equity complex sold off. Spot majors were broadly flat overnight, but US-listed proxies fell with Monday's risk tone: the bitcoin and ether ETFs both slipped, Coinbase lost 3.2% and Strategy 2.7%, and every listed miner fell between 3.8% and 6.0%. Deribit's DVOL eased to 35.95.
2. The miner weakness may prove dated. After the close, Riot Platforms was named as counterparty to a 20-year, 191 megawatt AI capacity lease with Anthropic worth about $9.1 billion, sending the shares up roughly 25% after hours. The Senate has scheduled a September procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.

Commodities

1. Oil: Brent held near $88 a barrel, little changed overnight and up roughly 10% over the prior four sessions, as the Strait of Hormuz standoff showed no sign of resolution, and after Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran, complicating the outlook for a deal. US energy equities were the clear winners of the Monday session, XLE up 4.66% and XOP up 5.73%, the largest sector moves on the tape. Natural gas eased 0.72% to $2.774.
2. Precious metals: Spot gold traded back above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months before softening in response to renewed headwinds from rising oil prices, firmer bond yields and a stronger dollar. Ahead of Wednesday’s key US CPI print, technical focused traders are now watching the 200-day moving average just below USD 4,500 to determine the strength of last week's breakout and 7% rally. The equity complex followed, GLD up 1.02%, GDX up 0.67% and GDXJ up 0.99%.
3. Industrial metals and grains: Copper is nearing a record above $14,000 a tonne on the LME, supported by warehouse tightness, US stockpiling ahead of a Section 232 decision, and a partial export ban on concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Meanwhile, Codelco, the world’s top producer saw a 14% drop in copper output last quarter, highlighting current supply challenges. On Comex, copper trades near USD 6.65 having seen some its recent buildup premium over LME being reduced in the last three sessions.
4. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. US Treasuries sold off and the treasury yield curve steepened as crude oil prices spiked higher Monday. Treasury yields rebounded to levels trading before the soft US jobs report on Friday, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield trading back up over four basis points near 4.24% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose over six basis points to close Monday above 4.70% for only the second time this year. The US Treasury will auction 3-year notes later today.

Currencies

1. The JPY weakened further late Monday and only firmed slightly in early Tuesday trading as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and jump in global bond yields weighed on Monday. USDJPY traded as high as 159.36 late Monday before consolidating slightly in muted trading in Asia on Tuesday, still up almost 1% from Friday’s close of 157.76. EURJPY tested its 200-day moving average near 15.390 on Monday before easing back slightly.
2. The US dollar was only slightly firmer despite the jump in US treasury yields Monday, with majors outside of USDJPY little changed on Tuesday relative to early Monday levels.
3. Sterling rallied broadly Monday, sending EURGBP below 0.8550 by the close of trade for the first time in two weeks and GBPUSD above 1.3500, as a lesser known UK labour market survey, the July REC-KPMG report, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner (see more above).
4. Australia’s Reserve Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% as universally expected and AUD dipped slightly immediately after the decision as the MPC judged the policy rate to be “somewhat restrictive” and forecast slightly higher unemployment, though saying that the labor market is a “little tight” while vowing to raise rates if upside inflation risks materialize.
5. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis