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This week, major forex rates are consolidating ahead of significant events: the Biden-Trump presidential debate, the US PCE deflator report, and the French parliamentary elections. The US dollar has seen a slight decline but remains strong, with the dollar index hovering near the 106.00 mark. This mild drop in the USD led to a dip in USD/JPY, hitting an intra-day low of 159.19.
USD Index
USDJPY H1
Japanese officials, including top currency official Kanda and Finance Minister Suzuki, have intervened verbally to curb the yen's depreciation. These interventions have momentarily slowed the rise of USD/JPY, bringing it close to its year-to-date high of 160.17 from April 29. The Japanese government, through spokesperson Hayashi, reiterated their vigilance over forex markets, emphasizing their readiness to act against excessive movements.
The threat of direct intervention looms if USD/JPY crosses the 160.00 threshold. However, officials stress that the pace of the yen's decline, not just the level, could trigger intervention. Despite a slower yen depreciation this month, justifying immediate intervention is challenging. The US Treasury’s recent inclusion of Japan on its monitoring list for forex practices further complicates intervention prospects. Nonetheless, Japan appears to have some leeway, with Vice Finance Minister Kanda indicating US transparency concerns but no outright opposition to Japan's recent actions.
Fundamentally, the yen remains weak, lacking triggers for a reversal. Even with narrowing yield spreads, the yen has continued to slide. Leveraged funds have been increasing their short positions on the yen, reaching levels not seen since 2017, suggesting continued pressure on the currency.
Leveraged Funds Positioning on JPY
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