USDJPY has suffered its sharpest 4-hour decline since May, raising immediate speculation that Japanese authorities may have stepped back into the foreign exchange market.
Intervention remains unconfirmed at the time of writing, but it is undeniable that the short term structure has been damaged.
Traders are also considering whether officials conducted a rate check, which can warn yen sellers that direct action may be approaching.
However, even if the move was only a warning shot or a stop-loss flush, USDJPY is now, for the first time, under its 4H-50 EMA for the first time in two months.
The timing also matters. July 2nd to 3rd was already on our radar as a possible intervention window because US liquidity is thinning ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Sudden selling can create a much larger move when fewer traders are available to absorb it.
NFP could decide whether 160 survives
The June US employment report is due today at 8:30 a.m. ET, one day earlier than usual because of the US holiday schedule.
| NFP indicator | Forecast | Previous |
| Non-Farm Payrolls | 110,000 | 172,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Average hourly earnings, YoY | 3.5% | 3.4 |
