EUR/USD Price Action Forecast Update Today: Is the 1.1410 – 1.4520 Resistance Level Still Potentially Trigger a Drop?

Key takeaways:

1. Price successfully retested and rejected the major 1.1410–1.14520 resistance zone on both daily and weekly charts.
2. A clear lower high has formed, leaving the overarching bearish trend completely intact.
3. The bearish scenario targets a drop to 1.13500 and is considered a high-probability setup.
4. The bullish scenario targets 1.15250 but fights the higher timeframe trend, making it lower probability.

What high-impact news can drive the trade ideas on EUR/USD this week?

Big economic news drives massive market direction. If you want to trade safely, you must pay close attention to the fundamental data coming out of the United States.

Here are the high-impact events that can potentially drive EUR/USD’s conviction:

These red-folder events continue to drive EUR/USD's short-term volatility and market direction.

Take note:

This high-impact news will only serve as a catalyst for trade setups on EUR/USD.

For a deeper macroeconomic perspective, check out our latest analysis from our Macro Economic Analyst:

1. EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Bearish Momentum Strains Critical 1.1400

EUR/USD Price Action Recap: How Price Reacted at 1.1410–1.4520?

Weekly chart

Weekly Chart Price Action. Price Reaction at Weekly & Daily Resistance Levels

1. Price properly retested the key weekly and daily resistance level.
2. A clear lower high (LH) formed, supporting the bearish potential.

Daily chart

Daily Chart Price Action. Price Reaction at Weekly & Daily Resistance Levels

1. Price successfully retested and rejected the weekly and daily resistance zone.
2. Bearish market structure remained intact.

What is the current technical price action on EUR/USD telling us?

Weekly chart

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis

The EUR/USD's weekly chart remains in a clear bearish trend, with price rejecting the major weekly and daily resistance zone. The higher timeframe continues to support a bearish outlook.

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Forming a Potential Lower High (LH) Structure at a Resistance Levels

Weekly chart observations:

1. Bearish market structure remained intact.
2. Price rejected the key resistance zone.
3. Bearish candlestick formed.
4. The 50 EMA continued to confirm the downtrend.
5. A lower high (LH) formed, signaling further downside.

Daily chart

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis

The daily timeframe provided confirmation of the bearish continuation after price failed to break above the key resistance zone.

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Head & Should Pattern Forming (Reversal Trend Forming)

Daily observations:

1. Bearish market structure remained intact.
2. Price successfully retested and rejected the 1.1410–1.1450 resistance level.
3. The 50 EMA continued to act as secondary trend confirmation.
4. Sellers defended the weekly and daily resistance zone.

Want to know how market trends and valid key levels was indetified? Check out these blogs:

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)
2. A Guide to Master Price Action Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Master the Trend in Trading Any Market
3. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in any Market: The Structure of a Market Trend
4. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels?

What is the best setup on EUR/USD’s current price action?

The outlook remains consistent with our previous analysis, “EUR/USD Price Action Forecast Today: Will the 1.14150–1.14520 Resistance Trigger a Drop to 1.13500?” While the higher timeframe continues to favor a bearish bias, both bullish and bearish scenarios remain valid and should be monitored as price reacts around the key 1.14150–1.14520 resistance level.

Bullish scenario (Lower-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

Bullish momentum could potentially occur in EUR/USD if:

1. If price break and retest weekly resistance level at 1.14150 - 1.14520
2. Proper breakout of daily resistance level
3. Confirm bullish candlestick rejections after the retest before considering continuation to the upside

Trade idea:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Take profit & Stop-loss Placement

1. Target price or profit at 1.15250
2. Stop-loss placed below potential support level (once weekly resistance is broken then it could now potentially act as a support level)

Take note:

This bullish trade idea on EUR/USD is considered a low-probability setup since it did not align with the overall higher timeframe trend.

Want to learn more how to confirm a proper candlestick confirmation and find and how to find high-probability setups? Check out these blogs:

1. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: Mastering Japanese Candlestick Confirmation + Pairing with Price Action Analysis
2. How to Step-by-Step Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) with Pure Technical Price Action Analysis?

Bearish scenario (Higher-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

Bearish momentum could occur in EUR/USD if:

1. If price properly retests back at weekly and daily resistance level 1.14150 - 1.14520.
2. Confirm a bearish candlestick rejection at daily resistance level.

Trade Idea:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Take Profit & Stop-loss Placement

1. Target Price or take profit at 1.13500.
2. Stop-loss placed above potential resistance zone.

Take note:

This bearish trade idea on EUR/USD is considered a high-probability setup since it does align with the overall bearish trend of the market.

Looking for high-probability trading opportunities every day? Join our upcoming live trading session, where we break down live price action, key support and resistance levels, and potential trade setups across the markets.

How to master the price action strategy we use in our EUR/USD forecasts?

This forecast demonstrates exactly how to combine market structure with support and resistance.

It works incredibly well by:

1. Follow the trend.
2. Mark key support and resistance.
3. Wait for confirmation.
4. Trade the break and retest.
5. Use the 50 EMA as confirmation.
6. Focus on quality setups.
7. Keep practicing basic price action strategy.

Final take

EUR/USD is still respecting the 1.14150–1.14520 resistance zone, so the overall outlook remains bearish. As long as price stays below this area and continues to show rejection, a move toward 1.13500 remains the higher-probability scenario.

However, if buyers can break above and successfully retest this resistance as support, the bearish outlook would weaken and a move toward 1.15250 becomes possible.

If you want to learn how to identify these high-probability price action setups across Gold, Forex, Crypto, Commodities and Indices, continue following our market analysis and educational guides.

Now you already have a potential trade idea on EUR/USD this week then,

Your next step is:

1. To know trader’s beginner steps before your trade
2. Mastering your psychology
3. Mastering the simple price action strategy
4. Mastering Repetitive Patterns in Trading
5. Trading live using this simple price action strategy

For more in-depth market breakdowns, real-time analysis, and structured learning content, you can join our Discord community inside ACY Server:

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1. Common beginner Traders Mistakes → avoid overtrading, revenge trading, and chasing the market.
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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. July 13, 2026