EUR/USD Price Action Forecast Today: Will the 1.14150–1.14520 Resistance Trigger a Drop to 1.13500?

Key takeaways:

1. The overall market structure reveals a clear bearish trend on both weekly and daily charts.
2. Price is currently retesting a massive resistance zone located between 1.14150 and 1.14520.
3. A bearish rejection at this exact level offers a high-probability drop toward the 1.13500 profit target.
4. Bullish moves remain low-probability unless the price successfully breaks and holds above the daily resistance.

What is the current technical price action on EUR/USD telling us?

Weekly chart

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis. Price Break Thru Strong Support Level

The weekly chart remains in a clear bearish trend. Price has broken below a major support level and is now retesting that same area as resistance.

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis

If sellers defend this weekly and daily resistance level, it could form a lower high and increase the probability of a continuation to the downside.

Weekly chart key observations:

1. Market structure is clear bearish trend.
2. Price is pulling back at a potential weekly and daily resistance level to retest
3. 50 EMA indicator is above confirming price is clearly still in a bearish trend
4. A potential lower high (LH) structure is forming

Want to master how to identify market trends and confirming valid key levels? Check out these blogs:

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)
2. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)

Daily chart

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis. Previous Valid Reactions on Key Levels

In the daily chart on EUR/USD, it show a strong bearish trend. Price is currently retesting a key confluence resistance zone, where both the weekly and daily resistance levels align.

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis

If sellers defend this area, it could provide confirmation for a continuation move to the downside, but if not, possible it could go either way.

Daily chart key observations:

1. Clear bearish market structure.
2. Price is retesting a strong weekly and daily resistance zone.
3. The 50 EMA remains above price, confirming bearish momentum.
4. Previous price reactions show this resistance area is well respected.
5. A bearish rejection at this zone would strengthen the continuation sell bias.

If you want to see the full breakdown of EUR/USD, watch this previous live trading session:

What is the best setup on EUR/USD’s current price action?

Bullish Scenario (Lower-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Acton Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

Bullish momentum could occur in EUR/USD if:

1. If price break and retest weekly resistance level at 1.14150 - 1.14520
2. Proper breakout of daily resistance level
3. Confirm bullish rejection signals after the retest before considering continuation to the upside

Trade idea:

1. Target price or profit at 1.15250
2. Stop-loss placed below potential support zone (once weekly resistance is broken then it could now potentially act as a support level)

Note: This bullish trade idea on EUR/USD is considered a low-probability setup since it did not align with the overall higher timeframe trend.

Want to learn more how to confirm a proper candlestick confirmation and find and how to find high-probability setups? Check out these blogs:

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2. How to Step-by-Step Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) with Pure Technical Price Action Analysis?

Bearish scenario (Higher-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Acton Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

Bearish momentum could occur in EUR/USD if:

1. If price properly retests and rejects daily resistance level 1.14150 - 1.14520
2. Confirm a bearish candlestick rejection at daily resistance level

Trade Idea:

1. Target Price or take profit at 1.13500
2. Stop-loss placed above potential resistance zone

Note: This bearish trade idea on EUR/USD is considered a high-probability setup since it does align with the overall bearish trend of the market.

Final take

Right now, EUR/USD is sitting at a very important resistance zone between 1.14150 and 1.14520. If sellers step in and reject this level, the market could continue following the overall bearish trend, with 1.13500 becoming the next potential target.

Could the market go higher?

Absolutely!

But buyers first need to prove they’re in control by breaking above this resistance, holding it as support, and showing a strong bullish confirmation.

Until that happens, it's better to stay patient and let the price reveal its next move before taking a trade.

Now you already have a potential trade idea on EUR/USD this week then,

Your next step is:

1. To know trader’s beginner steps before your trade
2. Mastering your psychology
3. Mastering the simple price action strategy
4. Mastering Repetitive Patterns in Trading
5. Trading live using this simple price action strategy

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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. July 7, 2026