EUR/USD Forecast Today: Can NFP News Today Push EUR/USD Down to 1.13000?

Key takeaways:

1. United States NFP and Unemployment data on July 2 will act as major catalysts.
2. Weekly and daily charts show a strong, confirmed bearish structure.
3. Bearish setups have a much higher probability of success right now.
4. Patience and strict risk management remain your best tools.

What high-impact news can drive the trade ideas on EUR/USD this week?

Big economic news drives massive market direction. If you want to trade safely, you must pay close attention to the fundamental data coming out of the United States.

Here are the high-impact events that can potentially drive EUR/USD conviction:

1. United States NFP Payrolls Jun – July 2 (Thursday)
2. United States Unemployment Rate Jun – July 2 (Thursday)

These red-folder events continue to dictate EUR/USD’s short-term volatility and directional conviction.

Notes: This high-impact news will only serve as a catalyst for trade setups on EUR/USD.

What is the Technical Price Action on EUR/USD telling us?

Weekly chart

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis

Here’s what I’m seeing on the weekly timeframe:

1. The market structure remains clearly bearish
2. The 50 EMA is positioned above the current price, reinforcing downside pressure
3. Price has break thru a strong validated support level

Want to know exactly how I identified the key support and resistance levels and the bearish market structure on AUD/CHF? Read this step-by-step guide and learn the same price action process I used:

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)

Daily chart

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis

On the EUR/USD daily chart, price still at a bearish structure. Price is continuing to create its last lower high structure move, clearly showing a downside potential.

Here is what I notice on the daily timeframe:

1. Daily is still in a bearish trend
2. Market structure is at a potential lower high
3. 50 EMA Indicator is also above the current price (indicating price is still clearly in a bearish trend)
4. Bearish candlestick confirmation formed at a potential lower high structure
5. Price break thru a support level now acting as a resistance level

Want to know how market trends and valid key levels was analyzed? Check out these blogs:

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)
2. A Guide to Master Price Action Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Master the Trend in Trading Any Market
3. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in any Market: The Structure of a Market Trend
4. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels?

What Is the best way potential setup on EUR/USD?

Bullish scenario

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

Bullish momentum could occur in Gold if:

1. Break and retest daily & weekly resistance level at 1.14200 - 1.13950
2. Confirm bullish rejection after the break and retest of the weekly and daily resistance zone

Trade Idea:

1. Target price or take profit at 1.15100
2. Stop-loss placed below potential support zone (once weekly resistance is broken then it could now potentially act as a support level)

Note: This Bullish trade idea on EUR/USD is considered a low-probability setup since it did not align with the overall higher timeframe trend.

Want to learn more how to confirm a proper candlestick confirmation and find and how to find high-probability setups? Check out these blogs:

1. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: Mastering Japanese Candlestick Confirmation + Pairing with Price Action Analysis
2. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: How to Use the Engulfing Candlestick as a High-Probability Entry Signal

Bearish scenario

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

Bearish momentum could occur in Gold if:

1. Properly rejects daily and weekly resistance level 1.14200 - 1.13950
2. Properly retest double top pattern
3. Confirm a bearish candlestick confirmation at daily resistance zone

Trade Idea:

1. Target Price or take profit at 1.13000
2. Stop-loss above potential resistance zone

Note: This bearish trade idea on EUR/USD is considered a high-probability setup since it does align with the overall higher timeframe trend of the market.

Final take

The higher-timeframe trend on EUR/USD remains bearish, so selling opportunities have a higher probability than buying opportunities.

The main question here is; Can NFP affect our setups?

Yes! But only as a catalyst, not as the reason for the trade.

We don't trade the news; we trade price action. NFP may provide the volatility needed for price to reach our key levels or trigger our setup, but price action always has the final say.

Always remember:

Patience and discipline will always be important than trying to force and predict the market move.

Now you already trade setup on EUR/USD then,

Your next step is:

1. To know trader’s beginner steps before your trade
2. Mastering your psychology
3. Mastering the simple price action strategy
4. Mastering Repetitive Patterns in Trading
5. Trading live using this simple price action strategy

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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. July 2, 2026