Explore Companies BySectors & Categories
Explore Companies ByUse Cases
Explore Companies ByProducts & Services
Explore Companies ByRankings & Reviews
Featured NewsCompaniesMarketsCryptoTechRegulatoryCommentaryUKUSWorldMore

    Latest Wires

      Daily Newsletter

      LF Daily News

      Daily industry focused newsletter giving you an overview for the financial & finTech industry.

      See All Newsletters
      By clicking "Sign Up" you are agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy

      Euro Under Pressure Amid US Tariffs and German Political Shifts

      Published: just now

      Euro Under Pressure Amid US Tariffs and German Political Shifts
      Visual content

      The euro has recently faced significant pressure, making it the weakest among G10 currencies this week. This decline has been particularly marked against commodity currencies like the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, pushing the EUR/USD pair close to a crucial support level around 1.0700. Several macroeconomic factors are weighing on the euro’s performance, including anticipated US tariffs, political instability in Germany, and divergent monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve.

      Currency Strength (EUR in Red)

      Visual content
      Source: Prime Market Terminal

      US Tariffs and Economic Outlook

      The anticipated policy shift under the Trump administration suggests that new tariffs on EU imports could materialize in the first half of the upcoming year. Economists are concerned that these tariffs may disrupt eurozone trade flows, potentially dragging down GDP growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points. While retaliatory tariffs from the eurozone could apply upward pressure on consumer prices, this may also strain the region’s economic growth trajectory.

      Furthermore, the ECB is likely to continue reducing the deposit rate closer to 2.00% to stimulate the European economy. This outlook contrasts with the US Federal Reserve's more cautious approach, where expected rate cuts are projected to slow, especially with inflationary risks linked to Trump’s agenda. The interest rate differential has already widened, with US yields increasing more than those in the eurozone. Consequently, expectations for higher US interest rates and slower ECB cuts add further pressure to the euro, potentially driving the EUR/USD rate closer to the 1.0000 - 1.0500 range.

      ECB Rate Forecasted to Cut 25bp on 12/12/2024 

      Visual content
      Source: Prime Market Terminal

      Germany’s Political Landscape and Economic Implications

      Adding to the euro’s challenges, Germany is experiencing heightened political uncertainty following the collapse of its coalition government. The breakdown, triggered by the dismissal of the finance minister, leaves the SPD party aiming to govern temporarily with the Greens until a confidence vote in mid-January. If this motion fails, as expected, a snap election could be called by March 2025, which might bring about a shift in Germany’s political spectrum.

      Current polls indicate growing support for the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance, along with populist movements on both the right and left. If the CDU/CSU is unable to secure a majority, coalition negotiations could lead to further political gridlock, complicating Germany’s response to economic challenges. This uncertainty, if prolonged, may affect the euro’s stability, especially with a potential shift in policies that could impact trade, energy, and fiscal support for the German economy.

      Energy Prices and Broader Economic Impact

      The eurozone could potentially benefit from lower energy prices, which have recently shown a downward trend. If oil prices fall further, it could improve Europe’s trade balance and support consumer spending within the region. However, with uncertainty from impending US tariffs and possible political shifts in Germany, the benefits of lower energy costs might be muted, especially if tariffs stymie growth.

      West Texas Oil Prices H4

      Visual content
      Source: Finlogix Charts

      Outlook for the Euro

      Overall, the euro’s near-term prospects appear challenging, with the combined effect of US tariffs, Germany’s political instability, and diverging monetary policies likely to sustain downward pressure. While a shorter period of political uncertainty in Germany could mitigate some risks, the euro may still test lower thresholds in the EUR/USD range, particularly if US tariffs materialize and Germany’s government struggles to stabilize.

      This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

      Try These Next

      Why Is Forex Trading So Difficult?Visual content

      How To Master MT4 & MT5 - Tips And Tricks For TradersVisual content

      The Importance Of Fundamental Analysis In Forex TradingVisual content

      Forex Leverage Explained: Mastering Forex Leverage In Trading & Controlling MarginVisual content

      The Importance Of Liquidity In Forex: A Beginner's GuideVisual content

      Close All Metatrader Script: Maximise Your Trading Efficiency And Reduce StressVisual content

      Best Currency Pairs To Trade In 2024Visual content

      Forex Trading Hours: Finding The Best Times To Trade FXVisual content

      MetaTrader Expert Advisor - The Benefits Of Algorithmic Trading And Forex EAsVisual content

      Top 5 Candlestick Trading Formations Every Trader Must KnowVisual content

      ACY Securities is one of Australia's fastest growing multi-asset online trading providers, offering ultra-low-cost trading, rock-solid execution, technologically superior account management and premium market analysis.

      This content may have been written by a third party. LiquidityFinder makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
      Comments
      Most Recent
      Written By
      Daily Newsletter

      LF Daily News

      Daily industry focused newsletter giving you an overview for the financial & finTech industry.

      See All Newsletters
      By clicking "Sign Up" you are agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy
      RSS Feeds

      Create a custom RSS Feed

      Select the categories and companies you wish to follow directly to your person rss feed.

      Create Custom RSS Feed

      Related Categories:

      Related Tags:

      #EUR/USD#EuropeanCentralBank#USFederalReserve#UStariffs#GermanPolitics#MonetaryPolicy#EurozoneTrade

      Related Articles:

      Find The Right Partners for
      Your Trading Business

      Sign up and join over 5,000 professional members who receive personalized news alerts, curated professional connections, and more for free!

      Create Your FREE Account
      Get access to latest news, updates, real-time data, brokerage and trading firm insights and customized information feeds.

      Retail futures trading leader NinjaTrader Group has appointed Mark Omens as Senior Vice President, Commercial Strategy, bringing a 25-year veteran of derivatives marketplace CME Group into a newly created role focused on exchange partnerships and enterprise growth.

      just now

      Gold Price Action Forecast: Will XAU/USD Drop to $3930? Meta Description: Read our Gold price action forecast to see if XAU/USD will drop to $3930.

      just now

      BitDelta Securities Financial Services LLC (“BitDelta Securities”) today announced that it has received full regulatory approval from the Capital Market Authority (“CMA”) of the United Arab Emirates under the Category 5 — Arrangement and Advice license framework (License No. 20200000439). The approval follows the firm's receipt of In-Principal Approval earlier this year and represents the successful conclusion of the CMA's full licensing process, including the satisfaction of capital requirements, governance appointments, and operational setup.

      just now

      Crypto.com has received a $400 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities, valuing the firm at $20 billion. It marks the first institutional funding round in the company's history, aimed at accelerating its expansion into tokenised securities, derivatives and other asset classes.

      just now

      WTI’s pullback into $79–82 is the first major test of the bullish Elliott Wave count, with buyers targeting a renewed break above $85.

      just now

      BitDelta Securities has secured a full CMA Category 5 licence in the UAE and opened a regulated office in Business Bay, Dubai. The firm operates as an introducing broker, connecting investors with licensed international brokers across multiple asset classes, with CEO Dr. Demetrios Zamboglou commenting on the milestone.

      just now

      Index volatility is asleep while single stocks fight it out underneath, credit refuses to confirm the equity rally, and a bare macro calendar hands next week to oil.

      just now

      Digital assets and FX brokerage GC Exchange FZE (GCEX) has appointed Mohammed A. Mulla as a Board Member of its Dubai-based entity, part of the wider GCEX Group.

      just now

      Learn what Blockchain-as-a-Service is, how it works, and why businesses are using BaaS to build blockchain applications without managing infrastructure.

      just now

      CFDs vs stocks compared on leverage, ownership, costs, dividends, taxes, and risk. Learn the differences between stocks and CFDs and discover which suits your investing or trading goals.

      just now
      Feed