just now
Last trading week was a doozy.
Both major macro prints surprised, but in opposite directions.
🏭 NFP showed +130K new jobs, pushing March rate hold odds from ~70% to ~90% overnight. Labour remains resilient.
🏷️ CPI cooled to 2.4% y/y, coming in 0.1% softer than expected. Disinflation remains intact.
As it stands:
- March cut probability sits near 9.8%
- A third cut becomes possible if inflation continues trending lower
In short: The Fed is likely holding near-term, but easing expectations are building for later in the year.
So where does that leave Nasdaq?
What is the Mixed Data telling us?
Inflation is cooling and the labour market isn’t cracking. That’s a soft-landing mix (dovish).
The Fed doesn’t need to hike, but it also doesn’t need to cut immediately.
So… The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, because it can afford to be in this position.
Further out in June and July, futures pricing shows easing probabilities rising. Not because something broke, but because inflation is cooperating.
If CPI continues drifting lower, that’s what opens the door to a third cut. If it stalls, markets fall back to two.
The Two Clear Scenarios on Nasdaq
To gauge Nasdaq’s price action, we’re using the Volume Profile tool.
Namely - the Fixed Range Volume Profile to mark out where the bearish volume is most concentrated in the decline from late Jan to early Feb.
From here, we can see that price has respected High Volume Nodes (high transaction price levels) and also an overhead trendline, anchored vWAP, and even the Fibonacci retracement.
Until this overhead clears, Nasdaq remains more locally bearish than bullish. But, given the mixed data, markets could whipsaw in a range before definitively picking a side.
Nasdaq 1H-Timeframe Chart - February 16th, 2026
🔴 Bearish Case
Price retests the bearish 30m FVG between $24,956–$25,090 and rejects.
There is a stacked resistance:
- Fair Value Gap
- Descending overhead trendline
- Anchored VWAP rolling lower
- Prior value area low
- Fib 50% at ~$25,311 just above
If we reject there and break the rising higher-low trendline, the market likely rotates lower toward deeper liquidity. This would align with:
- Fed hold near-term
- Growth losing leadership
- Continued gross de-risking
Probability: Slightly higher right now.
🟢 Bullish Case
To flip bullish, Nasdaq (USTEC as a CFD) must:
- Break and hold above $25,130 VAH
- Then reclaim and sustain above $25,311
- Consolidate above value
Anything less is just short covering. Only then does the structure shift back to expansion.
Tech Backdrop: Capex Cycle in Focus
Beyond the chart levels, there’s a fundamental layer influencing Nasdaq’s "bearishness".
Tech earnings remain solid, but attention has shifted toward spending.
The largest companies are committing heavily to AI infrastructure and data centres, which benefits semiconductors and power demand but raises questions about the timing of returns.
For example, analysts estimate OpenAI could post losses of around $14 billion in 2026 alone, with profitability not expected until 2029 or 2030.
But they're not the only ones struggling, this is a repeated pattern across AI firms - most are burning cash, not generating it.
Until investors see clearer monetisation from AI, Nasdaq upside is likely to stay capped, particularly while rates remain restrictive and capital rotates across sectors.
DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. Trading comes with substantial risk, leading to possible loss of your capital. Traders are advised to do their own due diligence before investing.
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