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Electronic trading platform operator Tradeweb Markets has announced a strategic partnership with CFTC-regulated prediction markets exchange Kalshi, with the goal of expanding institutional access to event contracts and prediction market data. As part of the agreement, Tradeweb has made a minority investment in Kalshi.
The collaboration aims to integrate Kalshi's real-time event probability data directly into Tradeweb's rates and credit marketplaces, including its user interface, APIs and data-download tools. The two firms plan to co-develop institutional-grade analytics combining Kalshi's event probabilities with Tradeweb's existing pricing, liquidity and macro-intelligence datasets.
Tradeweb facilitates more than $2.6 trillion in notional value traded on average per day and serves more than 3,000 institutional clients across 85 countries.
Bridging Prediction Markets and Institutional Workflows
As a first step, the partnership will embed Kalshi's probabilistic market signals directly into core trading workflows used by Tradeweb's institutional client base. The firms describe this as enabling investors to incorporate forward-looking risk signals, covering macroeconomic releases, Federal Reserve policy, political elections and other policy outcomes, into existing pricing and risk management processes.
Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult said the institutional trading stack will "soon evolve to pair high-quality event data with modern market structure," adding that prediction markets have the potential to become a key indicator for institutions assessing macro risk and allocating capital.
Prediction markets are increasingly becoming a key part of the trading landscape, and have the potential to become an indicator for institutions to dynamically assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively." - Billy Hult, Tradeweb.
Building an Institutional Portal for Event Contracts
Beyond data integration, the two firms will explore the development of a dedicated institutional portal for event contract trading, with Tradeweb acting as the front end to a potential new marketplace built on Kalshi's prediction markets infrastructure.
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said the exchange now has the scale, breadth of markets and liquidity required to support institutional adoption, citing a decade of demand from investors seeking to price and manage risks around events such as Brexit and US elections.
Institutional adoption requires scale, regulation, trust, and substantial liquidity. Today, Kalshi has the scale, breadth of markets, and liquidity required to help institutions manage the risks they face." - Tarek Mansour, Kalshi.
Kalshi was founded in 2018 and is credited with establishing prediction markets as a regulated financial asset class in the United States.
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