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Considering recent CPI data releases, the trajectory of the US dollar appears poised for potential gains, despite previous speculation of a June rate cut. The market sentiment, as indicated by the mom core CPI increase of 0.4%, suggests broader price pressures beyond rents, catalysing a notable jump in US yields and subsequently, the dollar's value.
US CPI
Looking at the CPI, we can do a breakdown and it reveals that core services, particularly shelter, transportation, and medical care services, contributed significantly to the inflation uptick. While the persisting lag between CPI rents and actual rents presents a puzzle, the evident inflationary pressures signal a need for the Federal Reserve to reassess its approach.
The Fed's emphasis on the super core measure of CPI as a gauge for addressing underlying inflation pressures underscores the significance of recent data trends. With the 3-month annualized super core inflation rate reaching 8.17% and the 6-month measure at 6.08%, concerns over inflationary risks loom large.
Despite initial expectations of a June rate cut, fuelled by consecutive upside inflation surprises, the likelihood diminishes considering evolving data trends. The prospect of a June cut by the FOMC now appears increasingly unlikely, given the need for more conclusive evidence and the potential impact on jobs growth.
Looking ahead, I’m expecting EUR/USD exchange rate indicate a window of opportunity for further US dollar strength. With short-term yield dynamics suggesting a possible dip in the EUR/USD below 1.0500, market participants may need to recalibrate expectations, especially in anticipation of the ECB's stance on monetary policy.
In conclusion, while uncertainties persist regarding the exact trajectory of the US dollar, recent CPI data insights suggest a nuanced approach is warranted. As market dynamics continue to evolve, staying attuned to key economic indicators remains essential for informed decision-making.
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