MARKET REPORT
Dollar's Losing Streak Continues as Iran Diplomacy Hopes Build
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USD extends seven-day losing streak – its longest since March 2024 – as Iran peace talk optimism reduces haven demand
- US import price data in focus today after yesterday's softer-than-expected PPI adds to the dollar's woes
Recap
USD extended its losing streak to seven consecutive sessions – its longest since March 2024 – as softer-than-expected PPI and renewed Iran peace talk optimism drove broad G10 strength. The USD Spot Index fell 0.4%, closing at its lowest level since February 27.
March PPI printed at 0.5% MoM against a consensus of 1.1%, with the YoY figure at 4.0% versus 4.6% expected – easing fears that the Iran conflict was feeding aggressively into producer prices. Reports that the US and Iran may return to Pakistan this week for further talks added to USD weakness, with Trump confirming Iranian officials had approached his administration wanting to work on a deal.
GBPUSD gained 0.54%, whilst EURUSD rose to a six-week high, erasing all Iran war losses. The IMF warned that the UK faces the biggest economic shock from the Iran war of any major advanced economy, cutting UK growth by 0.5% this year – a steeper downgrade than the rest of the G7. ECB's Lagarde warned unanchored inflation expectations would warrant action, with markets pricing 56bp of ECB rate hikes this year. BoE's Greene flagged upside inflation risks as paramount.
Today
Market rates
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 5pm BST on 14.04.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 5pm BST on 14.4.26
Data points
Click here for a calendar of upcoming economic events Speeches
USD: Fed Barr, Bowman, Hammack
- EUR: ECB Cipollane, Schnabel and Lagarde
Our thoughts
The key release today is US import price data at 13:30, with consensus pointing to a sharp acceleration to 2.3% MoM from 1.3% previously. A hot print could reignite inflation concerns and provide some support for USD, potentially interrupting its recent losing streak.
Beyond the data, USD direction hinges on whether US-Iran diplomatic momentum continues and how Fed speakers frame the inflation outlook today. After seven consecutive days of losses, USD is technically vulnerable – with import prices and Fed speakers both in focus, another volatile session is likely.
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