MARKET REPORT
Dollar's Losing Streak Extends as Ceasefire Optimism Builds
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USD falls for a ninth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since December 2006, as US-Iran ceasefire extension talks gather momentum.
- UK GDP beats expectations significantly but gains may be short-lived as Iran war impact yet to feed through.
Recap
USD extended its losing streak to nine consecutive sessions, its longest since December 2006, as reports emerged that the US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension. Trump added to the positive tone, claiming the war is "very close to over", though analysts continue to warn the selloff has run ahead of fundamentals. US import and export prices came in below expectations, providing modest inflation relief.
AUD surged to its highest level since June 2022 on broad risk-on sentiment, whilst GBPUSD edged marginally higher and GBPEUR was broadly flat.
Japan's Finance Minister warned authorities are prepared for "bold" action to support JPY, with the SNB also reiterating readiness to intervene on CHF.
BoE's Greene said markets were justified in trimming rate hike bets, suggesting two or fewer hikes this year is "about right".
Today
Market rates
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 5pm BST on 15.04.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 5pm BST on 15.4.26
Data points
Click here for a calendar of upcoming economic events Our thoughts
Geopolitical developments remain the dominant driver. Any concrete announcements on a ceasefire extension would likely extend USD weakness further, whilst stalled negotiations could trigger a sharp reversal, particularly given analyst warnings that the selloff has run ahead of fundamentals.
This morning's UK GDP beat is a positive for GBP but the muted market reaction suggests investors are already looking beyond the February figures. The real test for GBP will come as the Iran war's impact on energy prices and economic confidence begins to feed through into the data in the months ahead.
US jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook are the key remaining releases at 13:30 BST. Claims jumped to 219,000 last week. Any further deterioration would reinforce dovish Fed expectations and add further pressure on USD.
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