Market Quick Take – 24 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: Equity markets steady overnight after tech- and especially chip stocks dragged markets lower Tuesday
2. Volatility: Equities pulled back on rate hike concerns, vol repriced sharply higher with PCE and Micron on Thursday
3. Digital Assets: Crypto slipped on hawkish Fed spillover, protective options positioning dominated over outright selling
4. Commodities: Worst month since 2022 as US-Iran peace deal, hawkish Fed, and stronger dollar weigh on commodities
5. Fixed Income: Global bond markets steady amidst market volatility elsewhere.
6. Currencies: US dollar extends to new highs for the year, JPY steady versus the strong dollar as 40-year highs from 2024 eyed
7. Macro: Germany June IFO Business Climate & US May New Home Sales

Macro

1. More tankers are again crossing the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran peace talks advance. The IMO says new security assurances could free hundreds of ships from the Persian Gulf. UAE oil exports in early June rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels via pipelines, storage, and alternate routes. A new 60-day US waiver allows global buyers to purchase Iranian crude and products. Iran and Oman have also opened talks on a joint Hormuz transit framework, including possible passage fees.
2. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 in June, its highest since May 2022 and above expectations. Output and new orders grew strongly, inventories jumped, and supplier delivery times lengthened, but the index was held back by the steepest drop in manufacturing employment since May 2020.
3. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 52.2 in June from 51.5, the fastest growth since January. Stronger manufacturing (57.7) and services (51.3) underpinned the increase, with new orders boosted by World Cup–related services demand and manufacturers front-running potential Middle East disruptions. Longer supply delays kept prices rising, employment fell for a second month on cost-cutting, but business confidence hit its highest since February.
4. The BoJ summary of opinions largely supports continued, gradual rate hikes as inflation moves toward 2% and policy remains below the roughly 2% neutral rate. They argue steady increases could prevent sharper tightening later. One member opposed hikes, warning higher rates could damp investment, demand, and employment.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 0800 – Germany June IFO Business Climate
2. 1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
3. 1400 – US May New Home Sales
4. 1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
5. 1700 – US to Sell USD 70 billion 5-year Notes
6. 0130 – Australia May Employment Data

Earnings events

1. Wednesday: Micron
2. Thursday: H&M Hennes & Mauritz, Darden Restaurants

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 7,365.46 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.2% to 25,587.04, while the Dow slipped just 0.1% to 51,666.84 as the selloff remained concentrated in AI and semiconductor winners. Micron plunged 13.2% ahead of its results, while Nvidia, Tesla and other high-beta technology names came under pressure as investors reassessed stretched AI valuations and the risk of further Fed rate hikes. After the close, Cerebras fell around 10% in extended trading despite nearly doubling quarterly revenue, as investors focused on weaker projected gross margins and the gap to higher-margin AI chip rivals.
2. Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7% to 634.63, the DAX dropped 1.0% to 24,893.58 and the FTSE 100 eased 0.1% to 10,428.85, while the SMI outperformed with a 0.5% gain to 13,910.70 as defensives held up better. European technology was the main drag, with the sector down 3.7% in its worst session since February as the global AI selloff spread into the region. Infineon fell 6.3%, STMicroelectronics lost 8.5%, ASML dropped 5.7% and Aixtron slid 8.3%, while healthcare and food and beverage shares advanced. Bunzl rose 5.6% after upgrading its annual revenue growth outlook, while Signify plunged 14.8% after setting out lower medium-term margin targets.
3. Asia: Asian equities were mixed on Wednesday as the region tried to stabilise after Tuesday’s sharp AI-led rout, but the rebound was uneven and volatile. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.1% to 68,991.77 and Taiwan’s Taiex lost 2.5% as tech shares remained under pressure, while South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.5% to 8,241.23 after an early rebound from Tuesday’s 10% crash faded. SK Hynix fell another 3.6%, while Samsung Electronics rebounded 3.7% after its prior-day plunge. Hong Kong and Australia were slightly higher and mainland China was softer, leaving the session less a clean recovery than a reminder that crowded AI exposure remains the market’s key fault line.

Volatility

1. The S&P 500 fell 1.44% to close at 7,365 on Tuesday as markets repriced Federal Reserve rate expectations toward a potential hike in 2026, following last week's hawkish hold. Semiconductors underperformed, with SMH shedding roughly 5% from Friday's close. VIX rose 12.8% to 19.49, its highest close in several sessions, bringing the 30-day measure close to the medium-term VIX3M level of 19.57 (recorded Friday) and compressing the near-term term-structure premium.
2. Options flow on Tuesday was defensive in tone. The largest SPX blocks centred on deeply in-the-money puts in July and October tenors, consistent with portfolio hedging rather than directional positioning. SPY attracted substantial near-ATM put buying across near-term dated contracts. The standout single-name trade was Micron (MU), with large two-sided flow ahead of Thursday's earnings: long-dated calls alongside October put structures. SKEW was last at 146.72 (Friday reading), signalling elevated tail-risk demand, and MOVE at 67.
3. SPX expected move: approximately 59 points (~0.80%) for today's expiry (Wednesday 24 June), and approximately 107 points (~1.45%) for the end-of-week expiry (Friday 26 June). May PCE prints Thursday 25 June; Micron Technology reports earnings after Thursday's close. Both events carry scope to sustain the current vol level into the weekend.

Digital Assets

1. Digital assets opened Tuesday under modest pressure, tracking broader risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin started the session around $63,950 before sliding toward $62,250 through the morning, extending a multi-session pullback from mid-June levels. Ethereum moved from approximately $1,726 to $1,654 during the same window. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase later in 2026 have been cited as contributing factors, with the asset class broadly sensitive to shifts in the prevailing rate-path outlook.
2. US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain on an extended outflow run, with six consecutive weeks of net redemptions through 18 June. IBIT closed around $35.33 and ETHA around $12.52 on Tuesday. MicroStrategy traded in the $104–106 range. Franklin Templeton's filing for two dividend-to-Bitcoin ETFs, allocating a portion of dividend income to Bitcoin exposure, indicated continued institutional product development despite the near-term flow environment.
3. Options activity across crypto ETFs pointed to protective rather than outright bearish positioning. IBIT flow was concentrated in puts across August, September and October tenors; higher-strike puts were deeply in the money relative to the current IBIT price, consistent with long holders adding downside cover. ETHA attracted put buying across near-to-medium tenors. Binance's MiCA application in Greece is on course for rejection ahead of the 1 July deadline, with questions raised about informal ECB influence in the review process.

Commodities

1. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for its worst monthly performance since 2022, currently down around 10% in June and reducing its year-to-date gain to 15%. All sectors are trading lower this month, led by a 16% slump in energy and a 12% decline in precious metals. Industrial metals and agriculture are both down around 6%, highlighting the broad-based nature of the latest commodity market correction, with the main drivers being the US-Iran peace deal, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar.
2. Gold fell for a second session, pressured by a stronger dollar amid a technology-led equity selloff. Limited support came from rising Treasury bonds as lower energy prices ease concerns about inflation and reduce the need for additional Fed tightening. Instead, gold's unusually strong positive correlation with the S&P 500 continues to weigh on prices, pushing the metal into the key USD 4,000–4,100 support zone. A break below could trigger a fresh wave of capitulation and technical selling. Watch US equities, the dollar, and silver for direction, with the latter now challenging its March low near USD 61.
3. Brent crude slipped below USD 77 per barrel, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise. The International Maritime Organization said it has received safety assurances supporting the passage of hundreds of vessels out of the Persian Gulf. The market is increasingly pricing a steady return of stranded supply following one of the most severe disruptions in recent history. UAE exports have already recovered to around 85% of pre-war levels, adding to expectations of improving supply availability in the weeks ahead.
4. Cocoa retreated from a six-week high after Monday's 10% surge, as rising El Niño-related production concerns were offset by favourable near-term weather forecasts in West Africa. Improved rainfall across key growing regions has boosted crop development prospects, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between longer-term weather risks and near-term supply conditions.

Fixed Income

1. US Treasury yields dipped slightly at the front end of the yield curve and were almost unchanged at the longer end of the yield curve Tuesday. After an intraday dip of more than four basis points, the benchmark 2-year treasury yield closed the day down less than three basis points near 4.20%, while the benchmark 10-year yield traded in a tight range, ending the day only a basis point lower and just below 4.50%.
2. The large drop in the main US indices only provided a modest jolt lower in high yield bonds in the US yesterday, with the Bloomberg index we track of high yield bond spreads to US treasuries rising six basis points to a an eight-day high of 270 basis points.

Currencies

1. The US dollar pulled to new cycle highs yesterday as risk sentiment jolted lower in global equities and despite the quiet in the US treasury market. EURUSD pushed to a new low for 2026 and for the last twelve months below 1.1400, trading as low as 1.1361 early Wednesday.
2. The Japanese yen remained broadly firm, even with USDJPY still trading near the cycle highs 161.60 early Wednesday (and thus not far below the forty-year high from 2025 at 161.95), but the JPY was broadly firmer elsewhere, with EURJPY pushing to new local lows below 184, for example as European short-term yields have fallen considerably relative to Japan’s still elevated yields (the 2-year Euro-yen yield spread is at the lower end of the multi-month range. One BoJ member said that the neutral interest rate for Japan appears to be around 2%.
3. EURSEK rose well above 11.00 Tuesday and closed above that level for the first time this year, in part perhaps on the soft Eurozone flash PMIs for June Tuesday, but also on weak global risk sentiment.

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