Market Quick Take – 26 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: US was mixed, Europe hit records, while Asia’s chip rally reversed sharply as AI profit-taking returned.
2. Volatility: S&P ended flat on Apple shock, defensive flow dominated Thursday, with options vol surface repricing heading into Friday's expiry
3. Digital Assets: Crypto near multi-week lows on tech selloff spillover, IBIT protection demand outpacing exit flow
4. Commodities: BCOM heads for sixth straight weekly loss as dollar strength, hawkish Fed and Strait reopening weigh
5. Fixed Income: US yields drop at front end of yield curve as market slightly deflates FOMC hike expectation post-PCE inflation release.
6. Currencies: USD consolidating as treasury yields ease back further post-PCE inflation release.
7. Macro: US May Trade Balance & Final June University of Michigan Sentiment

Macro

1. Oil was on track for a weekly decline after transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated, although an attack on a cargo ship by an “unknown projectile” has renewed concerns about safe passage through the vital waterway. The attack on the container ship Ever Lovely has rattled the fragile confidence of shipowners and crews, though ships continued to transit through the narrow corridor on Friday.
2. The US PCE deflator rose 0.45% in May, boosting the year-on-year inflation rate to 4.1% from 3.8%, while the monthly rate of core inflation rose 0.32%, lifting the year-on-year rate to 3.4% from 3.3% in April. Data for June should show headline disinflation driven by lower global energy prices, but with core pressures rising and labour income remaining solid, policymakers are likely to maintain a hawkish tone for now.
3. The US Fed’s Goolsbee said he saw hopeful signs in the latest inflation report but warned that overall price pressures remain too high, while Williams said rates are well positioned to return inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. The CME FedWatch Tool is currently pricing the probability of a September hike at 47%.
4. The heatwave searing much of Europe is officially the most severe ever recorded in the region, according to a study by World Weather Attribution. The current weather pattern - a blocked high-pressure system trapping hot air over Europe and drawing warm air up from the Sahara - is not unusual in summer and is unrelated to the El Niño event that has begun in the Pacific Ocean, the scientists said. Instead, the level of heat has been supercharged by global heating lifting demand for cooling while raising concerns about damage to crops across the region.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US May Advanced Goods Trade Balance

1400 – US Final June University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

Next week

1. Monday: Prosus
2. Tuesday: Nike, Constellation Brands
3. Wednesday: General Mills

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 ended little changed at 7,357.49, marking a fourth straight loss, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% and the Dow rose 0.1%. Apple dropped 6.1% after price increases across Macs, iPads and other devices raised concerns about memory-chip cost pressure, while Micron surged 15.7% after guidance beat expectations and kept the AI memory story alive. Industrials offered balance, with Caterpillar and Deere helping the sector reach a record, while Jefferies fell 9.2% after earnings missed estimates. Markets now watch whether AI demand can stay strong without squeezing customers too hard.
2. Europe: European equities advanced, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.8% to a fresh record close of 640.21, while the DAX gained 1.0% and the FTSE 100 rose 0.7%. Bayer surged 18.7% after a favourable US Supreme Court ruling in its Roundup litigation, giving healthcare the main lift, while 3i Group jumped 11.5% after stronger growth at discount retailer Action. ASML rose 2.6% as Micron’s results supported semiconductor sentiment, but H&M fell after weaker operating profit and soft local-currency sales. Investors now look for whether Europe’s record run can broaden beyond legal relief and AI spillovers.
3. Asia: Asian equities reversed sharply on Friday after Thursday’s Micron-led rally, as investors took profits in the region’s biggest AI and semiconductor winners. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 5.0% to 68,783.50 and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 8.4% to 8,182.54, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics hit hard after recent gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also fell around 1.9%, as Alibaba extended losses and AI valuation concerns weighed on Chinese technology shares. The move was a reminder that AI trades can climb by elevator and occasionally leave by trapdoor, with investors now watching US tech sentiment and chip-margin pressure.

Volatility

1. The S&P 500 ended Thursday broadly flat, as Apple's 6.1% decline, tied to AI chip price pass-throughs on Macs and iPads, offset a semiconductor-led rally following Micron's earnings beat and Qualcomm's AI data centre revenue forecast. SMH gained 2.9% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.8%. VIX stood at 18.89, with VIX9D at 17.92, signalling elevated near-term vol demand heading into Friday's expiry. May PCE came in at 0.4% month-on-month, below the 0.5% consensus estimate, pulling 10-year Treasury yields two basis points lower to 4.37%.
2. Positioning into Thursday's session leaned cautious. SKEW at 139.89 reflected persistent tail-risk demand. SPX flow was dominated by deeply in-the-money put blocks spread across July through January, alongside call structures at comparable tenors, suggesting bracket positioning rather than directional conviction. Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia attracted defensive put activity across near-to-medium tenors. The notable exception was Micron, drawing call flow into October and December expiries following its earnings beat. MOVE settled at 67.10.

Digital Assets

1. Digital assets remained under pressure heading into Friday, with Bitcoin at approximately $59,800 and Ethereum around $1,553, both sitting near multi-week lows. Bitcoin held a small overnight gain of around 0.8% despite broader risk-off conditions, while Ethereum slipped 0.7%. The tone reflects a broader rotation out of high-growth assets, coinciding with Apple's AI-linked price increases and overnight Asian equity weakness, where SoftBank fell 14% following reports of an OpenAI IPO delay to 2027.
2. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth consecutive week of net outflows through 18 June. IBIT traded at $33.52 and ETHA at $11.74. MicroStrategy traded in the mid-$80s on Thursday. In a counterpoint to the flow trend, Franklin Templeton filed for two dividend-to-Bitcoin ETFs that would reinvest stock dividends into Bitcoin exposure, indicating institutional product development has not stalled.
3. IBIT options flow was predominantly protective, with put structures spanning near-term July expiries through January 2027, suggesting holders are adding downside cover rather than exiting. MicroStrategy attracted same-day put activity at Thursday's close, reflecting near-term bearishness in crypto equity proxies. Miner Iren also saw a large new July put position opened.

Commodities

1. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks a basket of 25 major futures contracts, is heading for a sixth consecutive weekly loss, down 3% this week and 12% since hitting a record high last month. All sectors, except soft commodities - where a 24% weather-driven surge in cocoa has provided support - are trading lower, led by industrial and precious metals as investors adjust to a stronger dollar, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The biggest weekly declines have been recorded in silver (-14%), aluminium (-6%), and crude oil (-6.5%).
2. Oil resumed its decline after tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated, following a brief rebound on Thursday when a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman. The mini tsunami of released barrels is weighing on the front end of the futures curve, while refined fuel markets remain tight. As a result, refinery margins stay elevated, delaying price relief for end users of diesel, jet fuel, and, not least, gasoline as the Northern Hemisphere driving season reaches its peak.
3. Gold is trading around USD 4,000 for a third consecutive session and is heading for a fourth weekly loss, with investor sentiment still shaken by the recent selloff as markets adjust to the twin headwinds of a hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar. While the technical breakdown continues to weigh on sentiment, continued declines in energy prices and softer bond yields may eventually reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further, potentially offering some support to the precious metal.

Fixed Income

1. US treasury yields fell in the wake of the release of the May PCE Inflation data, with the benchmark 2-year yield falling two basis points Thursday and another two basis points to the lowest level in more than a week early Friday near 4.09% as the market continues to modestly unwind expectations for Fed policy tightening. The 10-year treasury yield fell somewhat less, to just below 4.38% early Friday after closing almost unchanged near 4.40% on Thursday.
2. Japanese government bonds rallied Friday, with the benchmark 10-year JGB falling about three basis points and eyeing it’s lowest close in well over a week near 2.605%. The range low since the 2.81% intraday high of mid-May is near 2.56%.
3. US high yield debt remained under modest relative negative pressure, as the the Bloomberg index we track of high yield bond spreads to US treasuries rose another two basis points to 27 basis points, a new highs since early April.

Currencies

1. The US dollar rally consolidated Thursday. EURUSD backed up as high as 1.1388 after the local low of 1.1325, while USDCAD rolled over after its recent steep rally, trading early Friday near 1.4190 after matching the 14-month high of 1.4248 earlier on Thursday.
2. USDJPY continues to trade quietly near the top of the range early Friday, at around 161.80 after executing a precise test on Thursday, to the pip, of the post-1980’s high of 161.95, the forty-year high from July of 2024.

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