WTI dropped below $100 after reports suggested a US-Iran agreement could be getting closer, with Arab media outlet Al Hadath reporting that Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir may visit Iran to announce a final draft of the deal. Trump also said talks with Tehran are in the “final stages,” which gave traders a reason to pull some of the war premium out of crude.
That was enough to send July WTI futures down 5.7% to $98.26, while Brent fell 5.6% to $105.02. In plain English: oil got shoved back below $100 because the market started pricing: “Maybe this does not get worse”.
But this is not a victory-lap setup yet. Trump has made similar comments before, while the bigger sticking points remain Iran’s nuclear programme and access through the Strait of Hormuz. So yes, the headline is bearish for oil, but the deal still needs to actually exist outside the “trust me bro” stage.
The Hormuz angle matters too. Confirmed reports of 26 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours helped calm supply fears, which is exactly why crude lost altitude.
Basically, no escalation for now, and peace deal optimism means oil loses some of its panic bid.
That is also what the chart is showing. WTI has broken below the short-term rising channel and failed to hold the 100.90-102.50 zone. That area now becomes the first level bulls need to win back before the chart looks interesting again.
For now, USOIL price is floating under 100. It’s clearly fallen out of a rising channel, which is technically bearish.
The next proper support zone sits around 92-94.40. If peace headlines keep coming through and oil stays below 100.90, that is the obvious area traders will start watching.
However, it’s also undeniable that oil prices have remained elevated for three months and has refused to re-enter its pre Iran War prices in the $70’s. US inventories are still tight. The EIA reported a major crude draw, with commercial crude stocks falling by 7.9 million barrels, much larger than expectations.
Total US crude stock withdrawals, including the SPR, reached 17.8 million barrels, which is not exactly a chill backdrop for supply.
So it’s entirely possible for USOIL to still challenge or even overcome the 100.90 - 102.50 resistance, especially if the market senses this “final stages” declaration as another announcement to bide for time, without any substance.
So the market has two forces pulling on it:
| Driver | Oil impact |
| Peace progress / no escalation | Bearish, war premium fades |
| Big inventory drawdowns | Bullish, supply cushion looks thin |
| Hormuz risk returns | Fast squeeze risk |
| WTI below 100.90 | Short-term chart stays heavy |
| WTI above 102.50 | Bulls start getting oxygen again |
The clean trading read is this: no escalation and market optimism keeps oil under pressure for now, but tight inventories mean the drop may not be smooth. The market can remove the fear premium, but it cannot completely ignore the physical market.
| Below 100.90-102.50, the chart still leans heavy, with 92-94.40 as the next key zone. | A reclaim of 102.50 would change the mood. That would suggest sellers failed to hold the breakdown, and the market may be starting to price supply risk back in. | Above that, 105-106.80 is the bigger test. If oil gets back through there, the “maybe this was just a de-escalation fakeout” trade comes back into play. |
For now, oil is not screaming bullish because the markets are remaining hopeful. Risks may have been temporarily priced in, but the supply risk is still very real. So caution ahead is advised.
