The S&P 500 is now testing the top of a logarithmic rising channel stretching back to 2022, while Stochastic RSI has pushed into overbought territory.
Previous tests of this top has resulted in a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe, where price continued to push higher with weakening momentum. This was eventually followed by a decline.

So if price pushes higher and forms a bearish divergence now, this technical idea is going to gain more probability for me, personally.
Those pullbacks have repeatedly brought the S&P back towards its 100-week EMA band, which has acted as a pretty reliable trend support since 2023. It currently sits near the channel lows










