What began as early trade optimism yesterday – triggered by the US Court of International Trade deeming Trump’s tariffs illegal – turned out to be too good to be true. Things quickly got messy when Trump appealed the decision, prompting the US Court of Appeals to pause the ruling in order to review arguments from both sides.
Meanwhile, a separate federal court issued a similar but more limited decision on the tariffs. As a result, the initial ruling that had cancelled the tariffs is now effectively on hold. So it’s under this heavy cloud of uncertainty that the early risk-on rally yesterday fizzled out. Ongoing uncertainty around US fiscal and trade policy continues to weigh on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the economic impact of aggressive Trump policies – both on trade and government offices – is starting to show in the data. Figures released yesterday confirmed a contraction in US...
