AUD/CAD Price Action Forecast: Can Support Hold After the Bullish Breakout?

UD/CAD’s price forecast maintains a bullish bias as the weekly chart shows higher highs and higher lows, while the daily chart retests former resistance around 0.99679–0.99878.

Weekly support rejection and a daily inverted head-and-shoulders neckline retest put the focus on whether buyers can defend this area and sustain the recovery.

This AUD/CAD technical analysis examines the weekly and daily trends, key support levels, and price action confirmation needed for either scenario.

Will AUD/CAD hold support and extend its bullish structure, or will a confirmed breakdown weaken the recovery setup?

Key Takeaways

1. Weekly market structure remains bullish, with price reacting at a potential higher-low area.
2. The daily resistance breakout suggests a shift toward bullish structure.
3. 0.99679–0.99878 is the key daily support zone to watch.
4. The daily inverted head-and-shoulders neckline retest adds a potential bullish confluence.
5. Bullish rejection would support continuation; a confirmed breakdown and failed reclaim would strengthen the bearish alternative.

AUD/CAD Price Analysis: Weekly and Daily Trends

AUD/CAD Weekly Chart: Bullish Rejection at Higher-Low Support

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price Rejected Weekly Support Level

AUD/CAD’s weekly chart shows a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, supporting a bullish market structure.

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis

Price has returned to a higher-low area and rejected strong support. The previous weekly candlestick indicates buying interest, suggesting buyers are attempting to defend the broader uptrend.

The weekly setup includes:

1. An established sequence of higher highs and higher lows
2. A reaction at a potential higher-low support area
3. Previous bullish candlestick rejection at support

These conditions support a bullish bias, but continued buying is needed to confirm that the latest higher low is holding.

AUD/CAD Daily Chart: Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Neckline Retest

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price Has Broke Above Daily Resistance

Level

On the daily chart, AUD/CAD has broken above resistance and is retesting the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis

A successful retest would strengthen the case that former resistance

e is becoming support and that the daily recovery can develop further.

The daily setup shows:

1. A break above daily resistance
2. A potential shift toward bullish market structure
3. An inverted head-and-shoulders neckline retest
4. Price trading above the daily EMA

Price above the EMA indicator supports the bullish interpretation, but this signal alone does not establish a strong trend. Holding support and continuing to form higher highs and higher lows would provide stronger confirmation.

AUD/CAD Support and Resistance Levels

Identifying support and resistance levels helps define where to watch for rejection, breakouts, and retests.

The neckline retest provides additional context. The key question is whether buyers can defend the support zone and preserve the daily breakout.

AUD/CAD Price Forecast: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bullish Scenario: Support Holds at 0.99679–0.99878

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

For the bullish scenario, AUD/CAD needs to retest 0.99679–0.99878 and hold the zone as support.

This break-and-retest price action pattern helps assess whether former resistance has become support. A successful retest of the inverted head-and-shoulders neckline would add confluence. Bullish candlestick rejection, followed by buying follow-through, would strengthen the continuation setup.

The confirmation should come from a completed candle. An intraday bounce alone leaves the retest unresolved, making false breakout awareness relevant when assessing the reaction.

Bullish Setup

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Price retests 0.99679–0.99878 and holds support.
2. The inverted head-and-shoulders neckline holds on the retest.
3. A bullish rejection candle, such as a bullish engulfing candle or bullish pin bar, closes at the area.
4. Buying follows through, with a break above the local daily swing high adding confirmation.

This would support the weekly bullish structure and strengthen the case for daily upside continuation.

Invalidation: A sustained break below 0.99679, followed by a failed attempt to reclaim the support zone, would weaken the bullish retest setup.

Bearish Scenario: Support Breaks and Becomes Resistance

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

For the bearish scenario, AUD/CAD needs to break and close below 0.99679, clearing the lower boundary of daily support.

Price would then need to retest 0.99679–0.99878 from below and reject the zone as resistance.

Bearish candlestick confirmation after the retest would suggest sellers are defending the broken support area. Further selling would strengthen the case for a failed daily breakout.

Bearish Setup

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Price breaks and closes below 0.99679.
2. 0.99679–0.99878 is retested from below.
3. A bearish rejection candle closes at the reclaimed resistance zone.
4. Selling follows through, with a break below the breakdown swing low adding confirmation.

This would weaken the daily bullish reversal setup. However, a daily support failure would not automatically reverse the broader weekly uptrend; the relevant weekly higher low would also need to be assessed.

Invalidation: Price reclaims 0.99878 and successfully holds 0.99679–0.99878 as support again.

Final Take

AUD/CAD’s bullish outlook depends on 0.99679–0.99878 holding as support, alongside a successful inverted head-and-shoulders neckline retest.

Bullish rejection and follow-through would support continuation. A confirmed breakdown, retest from below, and bearish rejection would favour the bearish alternative.

Watch the support reaction. Wait for the candle to close. Let price action confirm the next move.

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