AUDJPY Price Action Forecast: Resistance Retest Eyes 109.283

The AUDJPY price forecast remains bearish based on the chart conditions described, with lower highs and lower lows on both the weekly and daily charts. Price has broken below a strong support area and is now retesting levels that could act as resistance.

The key level is 110.045–110.403. A bearish rejection here could support a move toward 109.283, while a successful breakout and support retest would open a bullish recovery scenario toward 111.550.

Price is also retesting the head and shoulders neckline, making the reaction around broken support an important part of the setup.

Will AUDJPY reject 110.045–110.403 and continue lower, or can buyers reclaim the zone and push toward 111.550?

Key Takeaways

1. Weekly and daily charts show bearish market structure, with lower highs and lower lows.
2. Price has broken below a strong weekly and daily support zone.
3. 110.045–110.403 could now act as resistance.
4. A head and shoulders neckline retest adds another area to watch for rejection.
5. Bearish confirmation could support a move toward 109.283.
6. A breakout above 110.403, followed by a successful retest, could support a recovery toward 111.550.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis: What Does Price Action Show?

AUDJPY Weekly Chart: Lower Highs and Lower Lows

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price Just Broke Below Weekly and Daily Support Level

The weekly AUDJPY chart shows a bearish market structure, with price creating lower highs and lower lows.

Lower highs show that recoveries are failing to exceed previous swing highs. Lower lows show that sellers have continued to push price beneath earlier lows.

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis

Price has also broken below a strong weekly and daily support area. During a recovery, this former support could become resistance if sellers defend it.

The head and shoulders neckline retest provides another reference for the bearish outlook. Rejection from below would support the breakdown, while a sustained recovery above the neckline would weaken the pattern.

Weekly chart observations:

1. Lower highs and lower lows.
2. A breakdown below a strong support area.
3. Former support could now act as resistance.
4. A neckline retest that still needs confirmation.

The weekly structure establishes the broader bearish bias. The daily reaction at resistance will help determine whether that bias translates into another move lower.

AUDJPY Daily Chart: Broken Support Could Become Resistance

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price is Trading Below Weekly and Daily Resistance Level

The daily chart follows the same bearish structure as the weekly chart.

The main area to watch is 110.045–110.403, where broken weekly and daily support could now attract selling pressure.

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis

Combining market structure with support and resistance helps explain the setup: a recovery into this zone could form another lower high if sellers reject the retest.

The daily 50 EMA can provide additional trend context. If price is below the EMA, that would support the bearish bias. If the EMA is below price, as stated in the original notes, it should not be presented as bearish confirmation.

Daily chart observations:

1. Bearish structure aligned with the weekly chart.
2. Broken support being retested as potential resistance.
3. 110.045–110.403 as the main decision zone.
4. Candlestick confirmation needed before assuming continuation.

Reaching resistance alone does not confirm a sell setup. The next step is to observe whether price rejects the zone or reclaims it.

AUDJPY Support and Resistance: Key Price Levels

Understanding support and resistance levels helps identify where each scenario could develop.

The targets are scenario levels, not guaranteed outcomes. Confirmation at the resistance zone remains the immediate focus.

AUDJPY Price Forecast: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

AUDJPY Bullish Scenario: Breakout and Retest Toward 111.550

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

The bullish scenario requires buyers to reclaim 110.045–110.403 and hold the area as support.

A daily close above 110.403 would place price above the full resistance zone. Traders can then watch for a successful break and retest.

Bullish Confirmation Checklist:

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Stop-loss Placement

1. Price closes above 110.403.
2. Price pulls back into 110.045–110.403 from above.
3. Former resistance holds as support.
4. A bullish rejection or engulfing candle confirms buying interest.
5. Price follows through higher, with 111.550 as the potential target.

A bullish rejection candle would show buyers defending the reclaimed zone. An engulfing candle could provide another form of confirmation.

Bullish idea: Break above 110.403 → successful support retest → bullish confirmation → potential move toward 111.550.

Because the broader structure is bearish, this would initially represent a recovery setup. A break above the previous daily lower high would provide stronger evidence of a structural shift.

A daily close back below 110.045 after the breakout would weaken the bullish setup.

AUDJPY Bearish Scenario: Resistance Rejection Toward 109.283

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

The bearish scenario follows the support breakdown already described. Price needs to retest 110.045–110.403 from below and show that sellers are defending the zone.

A bearish break and retest pattern develops when former support holds as resistance after a breakdown.

Bearish Confirmation Checklist:

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Price retests 110.045–110.403 from below.
2. The former support zone holds as resistance.
3. A bearish rejection or engulfing candle forms.
4. Price follows through lower, reinforcing the rejection.
5. Sellers maintain control, with 109.283 as the potential downside target.

Confirmation could include a candle with a pronounced upper wick or a bearish engulfing candle. A subsequent break below a nearby swing low would add evidence of continuation.

Bearish idea: Retest 110.045–110.403 → bearish confirmation → potential continuation toward 109.283.

A daily close above 110.403, followed by the zone holding as support, would weaken the bearish setup.

Head and Shoulders Neckline Retest: Why It Matters

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Proper Rejection at Head and Shoulder Neckline

The head and shoulders pattern can signal a bearish reversal when price breaks below its neckline.

Following that breakdown, price may recover to test the neckline from underneath. Sellers defending the retest would add support to the bearish scenario.

For this AUDJPY setup, watch for bearish rejection at the neckline followed by downside follow-through. A retest alone does not confirm the pattern will continue lower.

A sustained recovery above the neckline would weaken the bearish pattern.

AUDJPY Forecast: What to Watch Next

The AUDJPY outlook remains bearish based on the supplied weekly and daily structure, with lower highs, lower lows, and a breakdown below major support.

The immediate focus is 110.045–110.403.

Bearish rejection from this zone could support continuation toward 109.283, particularly if the neckline retest also fails.

For the bullish scenario, buyers need to close above 110.403, defend the reclaimed zone as support, and produce bullish confirmation. That would support a potential recovery toward 111.550.

Watch the retest. Wait for confirmation. Let price show whether sellers can defend resistance.

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