NAS100 Price Action Forecast Recap: How Did Nasdaq 100 Rally to 31,401.3?

My previous forecast, NAS100 Price Action Forecast: Nasdaq 100 Breakout Signals Further Upside, published on 5 October 2026, highlighted a bullish continuation setup after buyers defended weekly support and price broke above the 30,540–30,750 daily resistance zone.

NAS100 subsequently rallied to 31,401.3, extending the upward move outlined in that analysis.

This Nasdaq 100 technical analysis recap explains the weekly market structure, daily breakout, and key support and resistance levels behind the bullish outlook. It also distinguishes between a correct directional forecast and a confirmed trade entry.

For beginner traders, the lesson is understanding how these signals supported the outlook before the rally; and why entry conditions still mattered.

Key Takeaways

1. The weekly chart showed bullish market structure, with price above the 50 EMA.
2. Buyers defended former weekly resistance as support.
3. A daily breakout above 30,540–30,750 supported the bullish continuation outlook.
4. NAS100 subsequently reached 31,401.3, approximately 651.3 points above 30,750.
5. A confirmed support retest remained a separate entry condition.
6. 31,401.3 was the subsequent price reached, not a target stated in the original forecast.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: What Supported the Bullish Forecast?

The original analysis combined the broader weekly trend with a daily resistance breakout.

Each observation served a different purpose:

Together, these observations supported the NAS100 bullish outlook. The entry plan still depended on price behavior after the breakout.

1. NAS100 Weekly Analysis: Buyers Defended Support Above the 50 EMA

Weekly Chart Price Action from September 28 - October 2, 2026

The weekly chart provided the foundation for the forecast.

NAS100 maintained a bullish market structure, with price trading above the weekly 50 EMA.

During 28 September–2 October 2026, price retested former weekly resistance as support. By the 5 October update, the analysis identified a clear bullish rejection from that area.

In simple terms, price returned to a level that had previously limited the advance, but buyers stepped in and pushed it higher.

This supported the interpretation that former resistance was beginning to function as support.

The rejection also overlapped with the inverted head-and-shoulders neckline identified in the original analysis. That overlap added another technical reference to the continuation scenario, although neither observation guaranteed a rally.

2. NAS100 Weekly Analysis: Buyers Defended Previous Resistance as Support

Current Weekly Chart Price Action. Price Rejected Weekly Support Level and Head and Shoulder Pattern

Before the breakout, the main NAS100 support and resistance levels were:

1. Daily resistance: 30,540–30,750.
2. Weekly support: 30,000–30,400.

The daily breakout changed the technical picture.

Price moved above the upper boundary of the consolidation range, supporting the bullish direction already visible on the weekly chart.

A resistance breakout shows that buyers have pushed price beyond an area where previous advances stalled. The next question is whether price can sustain that move.

This is why the original NAS100 price action forecast identified 30,540–30,750 as potential support during a pullback.

Understanding how support and resistance levels change roles helps explain the setup. Once resistance breaks, a return to that area tests whether buyers are willing to defend it.

The weekly chart established the bullish context. The daily breakout showed price moving in the same direction.

3. NAS100 Daily Breakout Above 30,540–30,750 Resistance

Daily Chart Price Action Before the Bullish Rally. Price Breakout Above Consolidation Zone

Following the breakout described in the previous forecast, NAS100 reached 31,401.3.

Measured from 30,750, the upper boundary of the previous daily resistance zone, this represented an extension of 651.3 points, or approximately 2.12%.

The move was consistent with the direction outlined in the forecast.

However, the original article did not identify 31,401.3 as a specific take-profit target. It described the conditions supporting further upside and the confirmation traders could monitor.

The calculation measures the distance from a chart level. It does not represent an individual trade’s return.

NAS100 Break-and-Retest Setup: Entry Confirmation Explained

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

The original forecast distinguished between a Nasdaq 100 breakout and a confirmed retest entry.

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Stop-loss Placement

The proposed break-and-retest setup followed this sequence:

1. Price breaks above 30,540–30,750.
2. Price returns to the broken resistance zone.
3. Buyers defend the area as support.
4. A completed bullish rejection candle forms.
5. Price follows through higher.
6. A break above a nearby swing high would have added confirmation.

This distinction matters because price can rally without returning to the exact entry area a trader has planned.

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price Rallied to 31,401.3 After the Bullish Breakout

Reaching 31,401.3 supports the directional outlook but does not prove that every retest condition occurred.

The original forecast allowed for this possibility: price could continue higher while the planned retest entry remained unconfirmed.

NAS100 Support Levels: What Would Invalidate the Bullish Outlook?

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

The earlier analysis also defined the conditions that would weaken the bullish view.

The first warning was a daily close below 30,540, followed by a failed attempt to reclaim the breakout zone.

That would have brought 30,000–30,400 weekly support back into focus.

A stronger bearish scenario required price to:

1. Break below the entire weekly support zone.
2. Close below 30,000.
3. Retest the broken support from underneath and show bearish rejection.
4. Under those conditions, 29,000 became a potential downside reference.

These were conditional scenarios from the original forecast. They helped establish when the bullish reasoning would need reassessment.

NAS100 Price Action Lessons: Plan Before the Breakout

The rally to 31,401.3 illustrates how multiple chart observations can support a directional outlook.

The analysis first established the weekly trend. It then identified buyers defending support and a daily breakout above consolidation. Finally, it outlined entry confirmation and an alternative bearish scenario.

The 50 EMA provided trend context, while support, resistance and candlestick behavior formed the main price action framework.

For traders, the repeatable process is:

Identify the trend: Review the broader market structure.

Mark support and resistance: Define the areas where price behavior matters.

Wait for confirmation: Follow the entry conditions established before the move.

Define risk: Know what would invalidate the setup before entering.

NAS100’s advance to 31,401.3 followed the bullish direction described in the earlier forecast. Any new Nasdaq 100 price forecast requires a fresh chart assessment, since these historical levels and conditions may no longer describe the current market.

Plan before the move. Wait for confirmation. Let price determine whether the setup is ready.

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Past performance and historical price movements are not reliable indicators of future results. Any price levels, targets, scenarios, or market outlooks discussed should be viewed as analysis rather than guarantees of future market performance. October 9, 2026