Dollar Pressured: America Still Hasn’t Come Back!

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ACY Securities - Japer Osita

Oct 17, 2025

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) breaks below key support as America’s shutdown drags on — the world’s reserve currency is losing its voice.

Without data, without direction, and without clarity — traders are flying blind while confidence quietly leaks out of the dollar.

DXY remains pressured below 99.00, opening downside targets toward 98.00 and 97.50 unless a swift recovery reclaims 99.20.

America’s Absence Is Echoing Through the Dollar

Markets are starting to feel the weight of something deeper than politics - the silence of America’s economic engine.

The government shutdown has stretched longer than expected, and while it hasn’t broken the system, it’s broken the rhythm.

No inflation data. No job numbers. No growth reports.

Investors are now navigating a market without instruments, relying on sentiment and speculation instead of fact.

And in that silence, the U.S. dollar - once the world’s loudest signal of economic strength - has gone quiet.

The DXY’s recent breakdown is more than just a technical move; it’s a reflection of eroding confidence that the U.S. is in control of its own fiscal narrative.

The New Fear: Not Collapse, But Confusion

Economic data blackout: Traders have lost their compass - with no CPI, NFP, or GDP, markets can’t see what the Fed sees.

Fed uncertainty: With policymakers operating in the dark, speculation on future rate decisions grows unstable.

Investor hesitation: Institutions are scaling back dollar exposure and seeking clarity in gold, yen, and safe-haven assets.

Global optics: Allies and rivals alike are reading this as a pause in America’s leadership - and that perception alone weakens the USD’s standing.

This isn’t panic selling. It’s quiet repricing - a collective acknowledgment that America, for now, simply isn’t showing up.

DXY Breaks Down as Confidence Fades

The U.S. Dollar Index just broke below a crucial consolidation range (99.60 – 98.90), signaling a loss of momentum that coincides with growing fiscal dysfunction.

The shaded red zone marks a distribution phase, where smart money exited positions before the downside move.

Key Technical Levels

Range High: 99.60
Range Low: 98.90 (broken)
Current Price: 98.54
Next Supports: 98.00 → 97.50

The breakdown confirms a shift in market structure from consolidation to bearish continuation. Until DXY reclaims 99.20, sellers are in control - and confidence remains fragile.

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Recovery Requires a Comeback

The dollar needs a strong narrative catalyst to recover - likely an end to the shutdown or a surprise intervention from Treasury or the Fed.

If DXY closes back above 99.00–99.20, it could spark a relief rally toward 99.60–99.80, signaling that the U.S. is “back online.”

Bearish Scenario: Continuation of the Drift

Failure to regain 99.00 keeps the pressure on.

Expect:

98.00 as the next liquidity draw

97.50 as a deeper support zone

Momentum remains bearish as long as the shutdown darkens the data window. The longer the silence, the weaker the dollar’s pulse.

Market Cross-Impact: Gold, Nasdaq, and Risk Tone

Gold: Continues its ascent above $4,300, fueled by demand for stability and central bank accumulation.

Nasdaq Futures: Resilient amid tech optimism; weaker USD adds tailwind for growth stocks.

When the dollar falls, global liquidity tends to move elsewhere - and right now, that “elsewhere” is gold and tech.

Traders’ Approach

Bias: Short-term bearish on DXY while shutdown persists.
Plan:
- Watch for retests at 98.90–99.00 for rejection plays.
- Target 98.00 → 97.50 zones.
- Place stops above 99.40 to stay protected against false spikes.
Focus: Capital preservation - until America comes back online, trade defensively.

Final Thoughts: The Market’s Message Is Clear

The problem isn’t that America has fallen - it’s that it’s gone silent.

And in markets, silence speaks volumes.

Until the shutdown ends and data returns, the dollar will likely remain under pressure. This isn’t about short-term volatility - it’s about credibility.

Because for the world’s reserve currency, credibility is the last thing you can afford to lose.

Right now, the charts are echoing what traders already feel:

America still hasn’t come back.

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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

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