US Dollar Forecast: DXY Weakens as Markets Return to Rate-Cut Expectations

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ACY Securities - Japer Osita

Dec 5, 2025

US Dollar slips as Fed rate-cut bets return, with markets now pricing an 89.4% probability of a December cut from 375–400 bps to 350–375 bps.

Shift from rate-cut → rate-pause → back to rate-cut expectations weakens the USD as economic data cool and demand for the currency declines.

Technically, DXY remains inside a major daily demand, struggling to reclaim 99.80–100.00, with downside risks toward 98.80 if support breaks.

US Dollar Narrative: Weak Data and Policy Shifts Pressure DXY

The US Dollar continues to trade under pressure as incoming economic indicators point to a slowing U.S. economy. The latest contraction in manufacturing activity, along with softer orders and weakening momentum across multiple sectors, has placed renewed downside weight on the currency. This weakening fundamental backdrop has accelerated the shift in market expectations regarding the December Federal Reserve meeting.

Investors are once again pricing in the likelihood of a policy easing cycle beginning sooner than what was expected only weeks ago. Treasury yields have faded from their recent highs, and the dollar’s yield advantage over other major currencies has eroded. As a result, the DXY has struggled to maintain upward momentum, instead settling into a consolidation phase inside a broader daily demand zone.

The Fed Expectations Swing: From Cuts, to a Pause, and Back to Cuts

A key driver behind the dollar’s current weakness is the rapid shift in market expectations regarding the next Federal Reserve decision.

Early Q4 2025: Markets expected rate cuts

Slowing inflation and cooling employment data encouraged early pricing for policy easing. This weakened the dollar through October.

Mid-November: Rate-pause expectations took over

Resilient economic readings and better-than-expected labor developments led markets to dial back aggressive rate-cut bets. The narrative shifted to “higher for longer,” allowing the dollar to bounce and retest the 100.00 area.

Late November to early December: Back to rate-cut expectations

Newly released contractionary manufacturing data has reversed the story again. Markets now expect the Fed to cut rates at the upcoming December 10 meeting.

According to the latest CME FedWatch data, traders are pricing:

89.4% probability of a cut to 350–375 bps
10.6% probability of no change

This decisive swing back to easing expectations has limited upward potential for the USD and is now the dominant driver behind DXY’s failure to sustain a breakout above 99.80–100.00.

Broader Structural Headwinds for USD

Beyond near-term rate expectations, the dollar faces several medium-term obstacles:

Valuation Pressure

USD remains overvalued relative to long-term real exchange rate models, encouraging global investors to diversify portfolios away from U.S. assets.

Capital Rotation

As global growth becomes more balanced across regions, investors have begun shifting allocations toward higher-momentum economies and risk assets, decreasing defensive demand for the dollar.

Gradual Reserve Diversification

Some central banks continue to slowly reduce their USD share in favor of a more diversified basket of currencies and gold. Though gradual, this structural shift places long-term downward pressure on USD demand.

Together, these trends reinforce the likelihood that rallies in DXY will be corrective, not impulsive.

Technical Outlook: DXY Consolidates Inside a Daily Demand Zone

The recent price action shows DXY trading inside a wide daily order block between approximately 99.20 and 99.60. While the dollar managed a short-term rebound after tapping the lower boundary, it has since struggled to hold above the 99.80–99.816 key high.

Momentum remains muted, reflecting macro uncertainty and the market’s renewed conviction in a December rate cut.

Bullish Scenario

A potential bullish continuation requires:

Holding above 99.30
Reclaiming 99.80–99.816 with conviction
Establishing a higher-timeframe structure above the daily order block

If these conditions align, DXY may revisit:

100.00
100.20–100.50

This would be a corrective move unless fundamentals shift significantly.

Bearish Scenario

A bearish continuation becomes likely if:

Price rejects 99.80–99.816 again
The demand zone at 99.20–99.30 fails
Markets maintain or increase pricing for Fed easing

Downside targets include:

98.80
98.50
98.00 for deeper continuation

Given the macro context, the bearish scenario currently holds more probability unless data surprise to the upside.

Final Thoughts

The US Dollar remains trapped between structural headwinds and a weakening domestic economic landscape. The rapid transition from rate-cut expectations, to a temporary rate pause narrative, and now back to aggressive rate-cut pricing, has restored downward pressure on DXY.

Unless incoming U.S. economic data reverse the slowdown or global risk sentiment deteriorates sharply, the dollar is likely to remain capped beneath the 100.00 level, with further downside pressure in the coming sessions.

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